海角大神

Immigration has burst onto the Republican presidential campaign stage, with some candidates employing the scarlet 鈥淎鈥� word 鈥� amnesty 鈥� to label the policy prescription of rivals. Others are using the issue to sound tough on national security.

But don鈥檛 expect to hear any comprehensive or politically realistic discussion of what for some crucial segments of the voting population remains an emotional topic, many immigration experts say.

Instead, they add, candidates will use such a hot-button issue as a vehicle for saying something else 鈥� about themselves or others. And some voters for whom the illegal-immigration issue resonates will in turn use what they hear to give a candidate a Roman thumbs up or thumbs down.

鈥淚mmigration is a tool for Republican and independent voters especially that helps them think in shorthand about these candidates,鈥� says Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies in Washington.

鈥淚t鈥檚 an issue that鈥檚 going to be around for the rest of the campaign, so get used to it popping up,鈥� he adds. 鈥淚t鈥檚 just not going to be a clarifying part of it.鈥�

Jobs and the economy may be the overarching campaign issue, but for a core of conservative Republican primary voters, immigration constitutes a key test for defining who a candidate is. The downside of that, some conservative policy analysts say, is that it leads to one-upmanship among the candidates to see who can sound toughest.

鈥淚mmigration is a legitimate issue because we do have a problem with illegal immigration,鈥� says Daniel Griswold of the Cato Institute in Washington.

鈥淯nfortunately, we鈥檙e seeing a kind of demagogic tit for tat defined by the harshness of the rhetoric as each candidate tries to outdo the other,鈥� he also says. 鈥淔irst it鈥檚 a fence all along the border, then it鈥檚 a two-tier fence, and that leads to an electrified two-tier fence that will electrocute any illegal who touches it.鈥�

Some of the key words and phrases related to immigration that have been used by the Republican hopefuls in recent weeks include 鈥渉umane,鈥� 鈥渉eart,鈥� 鈥渓aw and order,鈥� 鈥渄eport,鈥� and of course 鈥渁mnesty.鈥�

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich jolted sleepy viewers to attention and fired up the blogosphere last week when he used a CNN debate on foreign policy to argue for a 鈥渉umane鈥� immigration policy. It would provide a path to legalization for illegal immigrants who have been in the United States for decades.

Rivals Mitt Romney and Michele Bachmann pounced, immediately labeling the Gingrich plan 鈥渁mnesty鈥� 鈥� a measure (last used by President Reagan in 1986) that is anathema to the Republican base.

Mr. Gingrich has not backed off his proposal, but he has worked in subsequent days to shore up his anti-illegal-immigration credentials. He鈥檚 told audiences in South Carolina that he supports a state law that would require police who are suspicious about the status of a stopped driver to verify the driver鈥檚 immigration status with federal officials.

But it was Texas Gov. Rick Perry who first demonstrated the potency of the immigration issue in the GOP race 鈥� and the perils for Republican candidates who get it wrong.

Challenged at a September debate over his support for Texas鈥� version of the DREAM Act 鈥� which extends in-state tuition to college students who have been educated in state schools but who lack legal status 鈥� Governor Perry responded that anyone who didn鈥檛 support the idea doesn鈥檛 鈥渉ave a heart.鈥�

Down plummeted Perry鈥檚 formerly high-flying numbers. Since then, he has regularly outdone himself trying to reestablish his tough-on-illegals credentials 鈥� insisting that as president he would 鈥渟hut down鈥� the southern border and deport all illegal immigrants rounded up.

鈥淢y policy will be to detain and deport every illegal alien who is apprehended in this country,鈥� Perry declared this week in New Hampshire. 鈥淎nd we鈥檒l do it with an expedited hearing process so that millions of illegal aliens are not released into the general population with some hearing date down the road.鈥�

Perry has also been campaigning with Sheriff Joe Arpaio at his side 鈥� the Arizona sheriff known for his anti-illegal-immigration exploits.

But 鈥淪heriff Joe鈥� is unlikely to be able to reverse Perry鈥檚 slide, immigration policy analysts say.

鈥淵ou have to wonder how many New Hampshire primary voters even know who this sheriff from Arizona is, so it鈥檚 hard to see how he鈥檚 the guy who鈥檚 going to save [Perry],鈥� says Stuart Anderson, executive director of the National Foundation for American Policy in Arlington, Va.

But Gingrich is unlikely to suffer the same fate as Perry over his immigration stance, says Mr. Anderson, who specializes in immigration issues. While Perry鈥檚 鈥渉eart鈥� comment sounded like he was moralizing, he says, Gingrich鈥檚 鈥渉umane鈥� comment 鈥� and the way he defined its application to illegal aliens who have lived in the US 鈥渇or decades鈥� 鈥� probably came off as common sense to many listeners, especially in the broader audience of Republicans and independents.

鈥淲e have to remember that about 70 percent of the illegal immigrant population came here 10 years ago or more,鈥� Anderson says. 鈥淚 think people make a distinction between being told they are morally wrong if they don鈥檛 support providing taxpayer-funded schooling for illegal immigrants, and being told that we鈥檙e going to have to find a way to address the legal status of people who have lived here for a long time.鈥�

Given the pitfalls that immigration presents, Republican candidates might be better off steering clear of the issue altogether. But Mr. Krikorian of the Center for Immigration Studies says it won鈥檛 go away because enough voters stick to it as a defining issue.

鈥淔or the voters who are worried about things like the loss of America鈥檚 sovereignty, that we鈥檝e lost control of our country, immigration resonates as an us-versus-them issue that identifies politicians who are post-American,鈥� Krikorian says.

That鈥檚 why Perry fell so fast, he adds. 鈥淧eople who had assumed, 鈥楬e鈥檚 one of us鈥� suddenly were saying, 鈥楢ha, he鈥檚 really one of them.鈥� And he hasn鈥檛 been able to recover from that.鈥�