Obama visits New Hampshire, but is the state swinging against him?
President Obama carried an urgent message of middle-class economic empowerment to the Granite State on Tuesday, providing a taste of the 2012 pitch that he鈥檒l make to voters in this small but crucial swing state 鈥� and across the nation.
He emphasized a commitment to tax relief for workers, and he chided his Republican adversaries for blocking the job-creation bill he presented to Congress earlier this year.
It was a populist song 鈥� one Democrats hope will boost Mr. Obama鈥檚 sagging approval ratings and prompt renewed faith in his leadership, despite a still-stagnant fiscal picture.
It was also a plea.
鈥淚t鈥檚 going to take time to rebuild an economy where hard work is valued and responsibility is rewarded,鈥� Obama told students and supporters at Manchester Central High School. 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to take time to rebuild an economy that restores security for the middle class and renews opportunity for folks trying to reach the middle class.鈥�
But political experts say Obama 鈥� who bested Republican Sen. John McCain here in the 2008 general election 鈥� faces an uphill climb. That鈥檚 the conclusion even though New Hampshire鈥檚 economic picture isn鈥檛 as bleak as that of other states: Unemployment is at 5.3 percent.
Still, Obama鈥檚 approval rating is 41 percent in New Hampshire 鈥� the lowest it has been since his first month in office, according to a WMUR/University of New Hampshire (UNH) poll released last month.
鈥淭he biggest problem he has is that the economy nationally is driving his job-approval ratings in New Hampshire,鈥� says Andy Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center in Durham. 鈥淲hen the economy is bad, the president gets the blame; his party gets the blame.鈥�
Mr. Smith adds, 鈥淚 hate to say it, [but] about all he can say is that the Republicans are going to be worse, and the strategy he鈥檚 taking is in line with that.鈥�
WMUR/UNH numbers also show a public lacking optimism about America鈥檚 future: Seventy percent of New Hampshire residents polled believe the nation is on the wrong track.
Dante Scala, an associate professor of political science at UNH, says he senses that independent voters are starting to ditch the incumbent.
鈥淪wing voters swung against George W. Bush and John McCain. Now they鈥檝e swung against Obama,鈥� Mr. Scala says. 鈥淭hey鈥檙e discontented with the status quo, especially on the economy. The president needs some good economic news to convince those voters that things are turning around for the better.鈥�
On Tuesday, Obama worked to channel empathy for those struggling and to affirm he has the concerns of Americans foremost on his mind. The 鈥渆ssence of the American dream,鈥� he said, feels like it is 鈥渟lipping away.鈥�
So Obama urged Congress to extend the $1,000 tax cut for average families 鈥� and to increase it to $1,500.
Democratic activist Deborah Butler, a Concord resident in the audience Tuesday, said she felt the president鈥檚 compassion and hopes the state鈥檚 many independent voters are listening closely to his call.
鈥淎s a single mom with two kids in college, that extra $1,500 would really help. And to pay $1,000 more would hurt,鈥� Ms. Butler says.
She also says Obama sounds pro-active, while the GOP presidential contenders routinely visiting New Hampshire in advance of the Jan. 10 primary are 鈥渕ean-spirited.鈥�
鈥淭he economy and unemployment are of course dampening the spirits of everyone, but much has been accomplished, and there is much more to do,鈥� she says.
Tom Rath, a senior adviser to Republican candidate Mitt Romney鈥檚 campaign and a veteran of the primary process, says the economy has become Obama鈥檚 albatross.
鈥淗is performance has not matched his rhetoric or promises,鈥� Mr. Rath says. 鈥淭he real estate market here is still in the tank, and there is decided unease about the economy.鈥�
He adds, 鈥淚 think these issues are not principally partisan. They cut across party lines and reach into the independent voter base as well.鈥�
New Hampshire voters are unpredictable. Underscoring their 鈥淟ive Free or Die鈥� state motto, they often keep election-watchers guessing about their loyalties until ballots are cast. This cycle 鈥� in both the primary and general contests 鈥� will prove no exception, political experts say.
The state offers just four electoral votes to its victor in the presidential contest. But it is one of a dozen states typically in play in recent elections. It is symbolically important.
A Bloomberg poll indicates that Obama would not do well in a head-to-head matchup against one GOP front-runner, Mitt Romney. The president trails the former Massachusetts governor by 10 points, according to the poll, which was conducted earlier this month.
But Obama鈥檚 visit Tuesday signals he鈥檚 not willing to cede New Hampshire to whoever the eventual Republican nominee is. No matter how dismal his job-approval ratings look there now.
鈥淣ew Hampshire is a swing state,鈥� Smith says. 鈥淚t will be in play for the 2012 election, and even though it鈥檚 only four electoral votes, if Al Gore would have gotten them, he would have been president in 2000.鈥�
