海角大神

With two months left to go before the New Hampshire primary, a clear alternative to Mitt Romney has yet to emerge among the GOP candidates.

鈥淢y instinct is to go with Romney, even though I don鈥檛 agree with all his issues,鈥� says Ginny Robinson, preparing to march in the Veterans Day parade in Nashua, N.H., with her adopted dogs Daisy and Keene. But she鈥檚 saving all the campaign mail just in case someone else rises enough to make her think again.

If Romney can hold the roughly 40 percent of likely primary voters who favored him in polls here in mid-October, his rivals might find themselves hoping for a second-place finish, which could give voters in other states a reason to take a second look.

鈥淚 had thought that the not-Romney vote would consolidate 鈥� but I don鈥檛 see anybody putting together the kind of campaign that can defeat him [here],鈥� says Fergus Cullen, former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, who is unaligned in this race.

鈥淭he race is wide open for second, and second is a prize worth having,鈥� he says. It would take only about 20 percent of the vote to earn second place, Mr. Cullen and others say.聽

So who鈥檚 in the best position to vie for that spot 鈥� or even challenge Romney, as some believe is still possible?

Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the US House of Representatives, is one to watch, says Patrick Griffin, a senior fellow at St. Anselm College鈥檚 New Hampshire Institute for Politics and an unaligned GOP consultant.

鈥淭here鈥檚 a Newt boomlet going on right now ... and Gingrich can make a case that he is the alternative to Romney,鈥� he says.

Gingrich only had about 6 percent of the support in mid-October polls here. But in a Nov. 9 poll of GOP influentials in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Iowa, and Florida, Gingrich came out first in several categories, including which candidate would best handle foreign policy, Obama鈥檚 health care law, and illegal immigration.

On the economy, 38 percent chose Romney, with Gingrich coming in second at 19 percent.

Nationally, a CBS poll out Friday shows Gingrich tying Romney for second place to Herman Cain 鈥� but 7 out of 10 said it was still too early to know their pick for sure.

Gingrich prompted a standing ovation Thursday night at a forum in Hampton, N.H., where he was joined by Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson, and Buddy Roemer. The crowd of 200 gathered by the tea party-leaning Granite State Liberty Patriots PAC rose and burst into loud applause when Gingrich said Obama鈥檚 biggest mistake was 鈥渘ot understanding which country he鈥檚 president of.鈥�

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman 鈥渉as the best shot at second鈥� in New Hampshire, Cullen says. Huntsman鈥檚 strategy seems to be 鈥淣ew Hampshire or bust.鈥�

He鈥檚 made more than 100 visits to the state, and moved his headquarters here from Florida. Friday he was in New Hampshire attending a ceremony at a veterans cemetery, visiting staff and veterans at a business known nationally for its prosthetics technology, and holding a town hall meeting.

Huntsman鈥檚 performance in debates and town halls has been solid, not exceptional, Cullen says, but 鈥減hilosophically, he鈥檚 in the sweet spot of New Hampshire politics.鈥�

While his moderate stances don鈥檛 appeal to the most conservative Republicans, he could pick up a strong share of independents 鈥� those who haven鈥檛 declared a political party and can opt to vote in either party鈥檚 primary.

But to capitalize on that potential, Huntsman鈥檚 going to need to do more to get on voters鈥� radar screens, including buying television ads at some point, Cullen says.

At the Veterans Day parade in Nashua, Patrick Sheehan, who plans to vote in the GOP primary, expressed dissatisfaction with the field of candidates 鈥� because he thought Huntsman had dropped out. When informed he was still in the race, Mr. Sheehan said he鈥檇 vote for Huntsman, because 鈥渉e seems responsible, down to earth, fiscally conservative, not so socially conservative.鈥�

But Griffin says Huntsman鈥檚 chances aren鈥檛 so strong, because although his moderate stances may appeal in a general election, in a primary 鈥渋deology trumps electability every time.鈥�

What about other candidates who have had a strong showing in national polls or key states?

Rick Perry is out, Griffin says, partly because of his debate gaffes, but more because 鈥渉e鈥檚 a dog who never hunted well in New Hampshire.鈥�

Neither he nor Cullen see the campaigns of Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum, Gary Johnson, or Buddy Roemer gaining much traction. But not everyone is ready to write off these candidates for a possible second place finish.

Santorum 鈥渃ould push forward in the final weeks,鈥� because he鈥檚 spent a significant amount of time in the state, Jennifer Horn, founder of the conservative 鈥淲e the People鈥� group, writes in an e-mail to the Monitor.

She also notes that Perry 鈥渞emains a strong conservative choice who does very well in person鈥� and could hold his own if he spends some resources on air time.

Rep. Ron Paul has deep-rooted support here among people who agree with his radical stances, but 鈥渉e has a definitive ceiling,鈥� Griffin says.

While Paul could get one delegate by earning at least 10 percent of the vote, Cullen says, he agrees with Griffin that he鈥檚 not likely to break the 12-15 percent range because his campaign doesn鈥檛 have enough mainstream appeal.

Herman Cain, leading in some national polls, is still something of an enigma here. Some observers say he won鈥檛 do well because voters wouldn鈥檛 be keen to see a sales tax of zero suddenly increase to 9 percent. And he doesn鈥檛 have much organization in New Hampshire.

But if the sexual harassment claims against him don鈥檛 expand into something that gives voters more pause, 鈥渨e鈥檒l see [Cain] in New Hampshire more and more ... [and he鈥檚] also the anti-Romney in many ways,鈥� Griffin says. 鈥淭here is something about him people like. He鈥檚 refreshing ... unfiltered.鈥�