Why Rick Perry is downplaying his front-runner status
| Washington
A wave of national polls has put Texas Gov. Rick Perry firmly in first place for the Republican presidential nomination, just 2-1/2 weeks since he entered the race.
The latest poll, from CNN/ORC, puts Governor Perry in the lead among GOP voters with 27 percent. And if former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani don鈥檛 run, support for Perry leaps to 37 percent, followed by 18 percent for former Massachusetts Gov. (and former front-runner) Mitt Romney, 12 percent for Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, and single digits or less for everyone else.
But the Perry campaign is playing it low-key. 鈥淭he only poll that matters is on Election Day,鈥� Perry spokesman Mark Miner tells reporters.
So why is his campaign being so diffident about this burst of success? That鈥檚 easy. It鈥檚 early, and the battle has only begun.
Governor Perry will appear in his first presidential debate on Sept. 7 鈥� his first big test before a televised national audience 鈥� with two more debates in quick succession. If he performs well, or at least competently, and passes the 鈥渄oes he look and act presidential鈥� test, then his numbers could grow more solid. If he stumbles, all bets are off.
This early in a campaign, voters can be fickle. Many remain essentially undecided, even if they have stated a preference to a pollster. One need only look at the two parties鈥� front-runners at this point in the campaign four years ago to understand the Perry camp鈥檚 caution: Mr. Giuliani topped the Republican field and then-Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton was the No. 1 Democrat.
Perry is also far from dominant in the two earliest nominating states, Iowa and New Hampshire. The two post-Perry-announcement polls out of Iowa show him on top of the field, but within the margin of error. In New Hampshire, Mr. Romney remains comfortably ahead. And even in national polls, Perry is well shy of a majority.
鈥淚n terms of building a majority coalition within the Republican Party, he has quite a bit of work to do,鈥� says David Winston, a Republican pollster. In addition, 鈥渉is lead is based on some initial perceptions of him, things he has said that have intrigued people. But the Republican electorate has not gone through the vetting process with him yet.鈥�
Still, says Mr. Winston, 鈥淚鈥檇 always rather be leading,鈥� because if the vetting process gets complicated, 鈥測ou鈥檝e got some leeway.鈥�
Toby Harnden, US editor of the Daily Telegraph, adds some more notes of caution for Perry. His top competitor, Romney, ran for president four years ago, and is showing himself to be an improved candidate, with 鈥渦nexpected resilience and staying power,鈥� Mr. Harnden writes. 鈥淗e is not to be underestimated.鈥�
Also, Harnden says, Romney鈥檚 years on the campaign trail mean he has 鈥渋mpressive campaign structures鈥� in the early nominating states. 鈥淧erry could catch up but we don鈥檛 yet have an indication that he will,鈥� he says.
Still, one pollster, Tom Jensen, from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, suggests that Perry will be more than the latest flavor-of-the-month candidate.
鈥淏efore Rick Perry鈥檚 sudden emergence, there had been several presidential candidates this year who momentarily captured the imagination of the right wing 鈥� first Donald Trump in March, then Herman Cain in June, then Michele Bachmann in July,鈥� Mr. Jensen writes. 鈥淏ut not even Trump so quickly and decisively turned that into an actual lead in a PPP national poll of Republican primary voters.鈥�
