Mitt Romney is officially in. Will he do better this time?
Mitt Romney is formally in the presidential race per his announcement Thursday at a hot-dog and chili cookout at a New Hampshire farm. Will he do better in the 2012 election cycle than he did last time around?
Mr. Romney鈥檚 2008 try for the White House didn鈥檛 go that well, after all. The well-funded ex-governor of Massachusetts thought he could burst out of the starting blocks with wins in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. Instead, he finished well behind the surprising Mike Huckabee in the former and lost to eventual nominee Sen. John McCain in the latter. His candidacy was burnt toast within weeks.
There鈥檚 reason to believe he鈥檒l be more successful with this attempt. He鈥檚 been the front-runner in almost all preseason polls, hovering at about 22 to 24 percent of the GOP primary vote. Perhaps more important, he鈥檚 liked, if not well liked. His Gallup (produced by subtracting the percentage of voters who have a highly unfavorable opinion of him from the percentage who have a highly favorable one) is about 14, which is decent. Minnesota ex-governor Tim Pawlenty and former you-know-what Sarah Palin score about the same.
He鈥檚 also clearly trying to lower expectations for his early performance. He鈥檚 made few appearances in New Hampshire and virtually none in Iowa. That鈥檚 smart, if you think the press might write you off if you stumble in those states. Romney鈥檚 strategy this time appears geared to a longer-distance trot than an early-state sprint. He鈥檚 got lots of cash. He鈥檚 got a network of support across the United States, built on the remnants of his 2008 try. He鈥檚 well positioned in the early primary states of New Hampshire (where he has a vacation home, and which neighbors the state where he was governor), Michigan (where he grew up and his dad was a beloved governor), and Nevada (which has many voters of Romney鈥檚 Mormon faith).
This time, it looks like Romney wants to grind through the campaign to the point where his coronation as nominee looks, and then becomes, inevitable.
And yet, and yet ...
There鈥檚 something about Mitt that does not make voters want to pull the lever, as ward bosses used to say. He鈥檚 the dutiful son underappreciated by his parents, the veteran utility infielder whose jersey fans don鈥檛 buy, the assistant manager trusted to open the store but not to deal with the big spending customers.
鈥淭he bottom line on Romney is that he certainly has name ID; that鈥檚 not his problem right now. He鈥檚 just not attracting a lot of intense support among Republicans, which he鈥檇 need if he were to face off against Barack Obama next year,鈥� Frank Newport earlier this spring.
Here鈥檚 a thought: Romney鈥檚 chances of winning may depend on how well he channels his inner Bill Clinton.
Remember the mantra of Mr. Clinton鈥檚 1992 presidential race? 鈥淚t鈥檚 the economy, stupid.鈥� Romney hopes that鈥檚 still as true today as it was in the 1990s. With unemployment high and the economy struggling to get back on track, Romney has made his economic credentials almost the sole focus of his campaign rhetoric.
鈥淚 believe I can get our economy going again,鈥� Romney said in an appearance on NBC鈥檚 鈥淭oday鈥� show Tuesday.
Gone is the Mitt who talked like a concerned social conservative in 2008, calling himself 鈥渢he most conservative candidate in the race.鈥� He says Mr. Obama鈥檚 health-care reforms should be repealed, but he won鈥檛 repudiate the similar state plan he signed as governor of Massachusetts. Asked about the "Romneycare" plan on the 鈥淭oday鈥� show, he said simply, 鈥淲hat we did was solve a very serious need that existed in our state.鈥�
Will this play well with the GOP primary electorate? Conservative commentators don鈥檛 think so. On , analyst Erick Erickson this week ran down the Republican contenders. 鈥淸T]oo much baggage to cross the finish line,鈥� he said of Romney.
