Why Mitt Romney isn't worried about Rick Santorum, yet
| Washington
Rick Santorum piled up as many victories on Tuesday 鈥� in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri聽鈥� as Mitt Romney has in the campaign to date. If you鈥檙e like Decoder, then you鈥檝e been plowing through gigabytes of digital knowledge on what this means for the GOP presidential race.
With March (and its ensuing madness, of the basketball variety) right around the corner, let鈥檚 use a quick analogy to explain what happened Tuesday night.
Mr. Santorum is the gritty mid-major school that no brand-name hoops team wants to play. Why? Because the big school doesn鈥檛 gain anything by winning but stands to lose a lot if it comes up short.
In college hoops, it doesn鈥檛 help the University of North Carolina to beat Creighton 鈥� they鈥檙e UNC! They鈥檙e supposed to beat Creighton! (Quick: What state is Creighton in?) But if a tough Bluejays team holds on for a win 鈥� oh boy. Then you鈥檝e got a story.
Mr. Romney (UNC) didn鈥檛 want to play Santorum (Creighton) in Tuesday鈥檚 bouts.
Remember: When Newt Gingrich surged in Iowa, Mitt Romney blew him away with a crush of advertising.
After Mr. Gingrich struck another blow in South Carolina, Romney buried him under a massive hail of advertisements (again) in Florida.
Romney did no such thing leading up to the voting on Tuesday. The Romney campaign鈥檚 lays this out quite plainly, with political director Rich Beeson writing, 鈥淚t is difficult to see what Governor Romney鈥檚 opponents can do to change the dynamics of the race in February.鈥澛�
If there鈥檚 little in it for Romney鈥檚 foes, the argument could continue that there鈥檚 very little in it for Romney, too.
But what about the fact that Santorum didn鈥檛 (necessarily) win any delegates to the national nominating convention?
Missouri鈥檚 contest was a true beauty contest, a nonbinding vote ahead of another contest later in the schedule. In Colorado and Minnesota, delegates aren鈥檛 bound by the vote.
This matters not a bit at this point. Romney, your delegate leader, has 90. Santorum, in second, has 44 (assuming some delegates from his Tuesday wins do accrue to him). With north of 1,100 needed to secure the nomination, there are zounds of delegates to go before the candidates can rest. Delegates, at this point in the campaign, are being used as a stand-in for a candidate鈥檚 viability. And viability means "being able to actually win the support of Republicans in an American state."听(厂辞谤谤测 Ron Paul, you really haven鈥檛 come close to winning anywhere yet.)
So how does Santorum go from being pesky Creighton to a mighty title contender?
That鈥檚 simple: Raise money. Tons of it.
If Santorum is going to hold his own, he鈥檚 got to be able to (a) punch back against Romney鈥檚 initial attack lines, which will be drawn in the coming weeks, and (b) more important, get his organization together. Organization and money will be key for the two states voting in late February, Arizona and Michigan, where Romney has distinct advantages (lots of Mormons in the former, his family legacy in the latter). And those two commodities will get more precious on Super Tuesday, March 6, when more than 437 delegates will be at stake across 10 states.
Will Santorum鈥檚 Tuesday wins mean anything going forward? The answer to that question isn鈥檛 going to be counted immediately in how many delegates he won. The answer, instead, will be best determined by whether he gets the financial support necessary to begin to
鈥� by David Grant /
Dig deeper:
- CNN鈥檚 February caucus/primary is a little dated now - but super informative nonetheless.
- Follow the delegates with .
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