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If Newt Gingrich loses in Florida today - and, , all signs point to a decisive defeat - analysts will undoubtedly point to the impact of money and TV ads. Florida is an extremely expensive state to run in, and Mitt Romney outspent Gingrich there by as much as 5 to 1.

But we鈥檇 argue there鈥檚 another reason Gingrich has floundered in the Sunshine State: He allowed Romney to get to the right of him politically.

In South Carolina, where Gingrich pulled out a stunning surprise victory over Romney, he did it in part by whipping up a late-crashing wave of conservative support. His attention-grabbing debate exchanges with moderators over hot-button issues - such as whether calling President Obama a 鈥渇ood stamp president鈥� was racist, and his outrage at being asked about his ex-wife鈥檚 charge that he wanted an 鈥渙pen marriage鈥� - played into the genuine hostility many base conservatives and tea party sympathizers feel toward the 鈥渓amestream鈥� media and the left.聽

Significantly, those debate moments also wound up overshadowing the other major narrative in South Carolina - Gingrich鈥檚 attacks on Romney鈥檚 record at Bain Capital and his taxes - which, while effective in pushing Romney鈥檚 unfavorable ratings up, held serious danger for Gingrich, since they brought a slew of criticism from fellow Republicans, who argued he was positioning himself against free enterprise.

And it was that latter dynamic - Gingrich attacking Romney from the left in ways that drew criticism from conservatives, rather than marshaling their support - that actually carried over into Florida. Consider:聽

• On immigration: Gingrich ran a radio ad in Florida accusing Romney of being 鈥渢he most anti-immigrant candidate鈥� - but was forced to聽pull it after criticism from Sen. Marco Rubio, a tea party favorite. When Gingrich tried to defend the charge in last Thursday鈥檚 debate, asking Romney how he would characterize deporting 鈥済randmothers鈥� who have been here for years, Romney came back with聽the zinger: 鈥淥ur problem is not 11 million grandmothers.鈥� What the base heard: Gingrich wants to let illegal immigrants stay; Romney doesn鈥檛.聽

• On Medicare: When Romney accused Gingrich of lobbying on behalf of healthcare clients for the 2003 prescription-drug program known as Medicare Part D - an unfunded expansion of Medicare that the Congressional Budget Office projects will cost the government more than $16 trillion - Gingrich defended himself by saying he鈥檇 always favored 鈥渁 stronger Medicare program鈥� and added: 鈥淚鈥檓 proud that I publicly advocated Medicare Part D.鈥澛燤ore recently, Gingrich resorted to attacking Romney for cutting Medicare spending on Kosher meals for Jewish seniors during his time as governor of Massachusetts. What the base heard: Gingrich supports extravagant spending on entitlements; Romney doesn鈥檛.

• On space exploration: In perhaps the most widely-mocked line of the campaign, Gingrich said he would put a base on the Moon and allow the Americans living there to apply for statehood. Romney retorted that if an employee of his had proposed spending hundreds of billions of dollars for a Moon colony, he鈥檇 tell them they were fired. What the base heard: Gingrich would throw billions of dollars at a pie-in-the-sky idea; Romney wouldn鈥檛.

All these lines were clear efforts by Gingrich to pander to different Florida voting groups: Hispanics, seniors, space-industry employees. But ironically, they also allowed Romney to come across as the more conservative of the two men - and in a GOP primary, conservative usually wins.

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