Mitt Romney in trouble in New Hampshire? Not really.
Mitt Romney is poised to win the New Hampshire primary tonight, possibly by double digits, becoming the first non-incumbent Republican ever to win both Iowa and New Hampshire.
In response to this historic feat, the media has naturally been declaring that 鈥� 1) Romney is in trouble, and, 2) the real story here is the fight for second place.
Pundits and analysts are declaring this Romney鈥檚 鈥渨orst 48 hours鈥� of the campaign: He鈥檚 slipping up on the stump, making comments about pink slips and firing people! Fellow Republicans are attacking him as a corporate raider! He聽might only win New Hampshire by (gasp) seven or eight points!
We can鈥檛 really blame those who still seem to be rooting for a fight. It鈥檚 hard to keep writing/talking about a campaign with an entirely predictable outcome in which the all-but-certain-winner is not exactly the most exciting guy in the room. Plus, while the outcome may seem assured, mathematically, Romney can鈥檛 seal the nomination until April - which means that, technically speaking, a surprise聽could聽still happen.
One interesting question, in Decoder鈥檚 mind, is to what extent the media鈥檚 need to keep the storyline going - as Romney slowly works his way toward the necessary delegate total - may actually impact the race. Will discussions of Romney鈥檚 鈥渨eakness鈥� as a candidate make him a weaker candidate?聽Could media attention help today鈥檚 second-place finisher make a meaningful dent in Romney鈥檚 dominance?
Ultimately, we think probably not. It鈥檚 true the recent attacks on Romney鈥檚 corporate record go right to the heart of his main strength (business experience) and may chip away at his standing in the polls. On the other hand, recent polls have shown him with double-digit leads in South Carolina, and Florida - so there鈥檚 room for some erosion. Moreover, we tend to side with the argument that this rough patch could actually help inoculate him against future such attacks (see: Obama, Barack, and Rev. Jeremiah Wright). 聽
To be fair, some journalists are already calling this thing. Roger Simon declares in Politico today that聽聽聽In one of the most creative analogies we鈥檝e seen to date, Simon writes:
Two guys are out camping, when they hear a bear clawing into their tent.
The first guy jumps up and starts pulling his shoes on.
鈥淒on鈥檛 be an idiot,鈥� the second guy says. 鈥淵ou can鈥檛 outrun a bear!鈥�
鈥淚 don鈥檛 have to outrun the bear,鈥� the first guy says. 鈥淚 just have to outrun you.鈥�
Simon then aptly concludes:
Mitt Romney doesn鈥檛 have to outrun the bear. He doesn鈥檛 have to be a perfect candidate. He doesn鈥檛 have to be the reincarnation of Ronald Reagan. All he has to do is outrun Ron Paul, Jon Huntsman, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and Buddy Roemer.
The most likely second-place finishers in New Hampshire are Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman. The most likely second-place finishers in South Carolina are Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich.聽The point is, the battle for second place doesn鈥檛 matter as long as the same candidate keeps winning first. And, like Simon, we still don鈥檛 see anything out there that seems likely to change that outcome.
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