Mitt Romney's next big test isn't N.H. or S.C., it's Florida
After Tuesday's photofinish in Iowa - in which Mitt Romney edged Rick Santorum by just 8 votes - all the candidates are pounding the streets of New Hampshire, which casts ballots in just 5 days.
But the state that鈥檚 looming over this race as most likely to decide it won鈥檛 actually vote for 27 more days: Florida.
Romney has long held a big lead in New Hampshire. Given his history in the state, and the role independents play in the voting, he鈥檚 almost certain to win there. The only question is whether Rick Santorum can translate his strong showing in Iowa into a surprise - placing a strong second or third in the Granite State. How close Santorum can come will have an impact - either reinforcing his status as a legitimate threat to Romney or hinting he鈥檚 likely to go the way of Mike Huckabee in 2008.
But New Hampshire is unlikely to change the fundamental shape of the race.
That same dynamic, only in reverse, is then likely to play out in the next state: South Carolina, which votes on January 21. The GOP electorate there is more like Iowa鈥檚, heavy on 海角大神 conservatives. With Michele Bachmann out of the race and Rick Perry limping out of his fifth-place finish in Iowa, Santorum could garner a bigger share of the conservative vote than he did in Iowa. Which means that South Carolina is Romney鈥檚 chance for a surprise showing. How close Romney can come to a win will indicate strength or weakness - but barring a surprise Romney win there, South Carolina is also unlikely to be definitive.
Which brings us to Florida. With its diverse population and sheer size, a win in Florida for Romney could deliver the knock-out blow he鈥檚 been looking for. Tellingly, his , making him the first candidate on the air in the Sunshine State (the pro-Romney Super PAC 鈥淩estore Our Future鈥� has already on ads in Florida and South Carolina).
If Romney cleans up in Florida, he may at that point become the defacto nominee. If he doesn鈥檛, it means we鈥檙e in for a long, protracted battle that could stretch on for months.
New Hampshire and South Carolina will matter. But Florida will matter more.聽聽
Like your politics unscrambled? Check out
