Why Newt Gingrich is likely to win Iowa
| Washington
There are plenty of reasons to discount the Newt Gingrich surge as the latest flash-in-the-pan phase of the GOP nomination contest.
He鈥檚 got a bare-bones political staff. There鈥檚 no indication he鈥檚 doing more than a serviceable job raising money. There鈥檚 , from two divorces to his with 鈥淧rincess鈥� (, not Decoder鈥檚) Nancy Pelosi.
But let's look at why Newt听颈蝉苍'迟 likely to implode.聽
As Matthew Dowd , the widely held belief that it鈥檚 important to have massive campaign staff in Iowa simply isn鈥檛 true (see 鈥淧awlenty, Tim鈥�).
"In nearly every Iowa Republican caucus in recent memory, it wasn鈥檛 the candidate with extensive and experienced organization who exceeded their poll numbers but the candidate with the energy and momentum going into the Caucus." [emphasis Decoder鈥檚.]
Why is this the case?
"One reason this myth gets repeated is that there is confusion over the Democratic process in the Iowa caucus and the Republican process. The Democratic caucus is much more complicated. It involves meeting certain mandated thresholds, convening in groups at each caucus, reconvening, and using various mathematical equations that are instrumental to choosing a winner. In that process, an organization is a huge advantage, helping lead each individual precinct caucus and having many folks that understand the byzantine Democratic rules.
For Republicans, this isn鈥檛 true. The Republican caucus is very simple and is much like the Ames Straw vote held last summer. Folks show up at a meeting place, you count their votes, and you know who won or lost by adding the votes up from around the state. An organization is not a necessity if you have enthusiastic supporters."
Moreover, while Gingrich has a small staff it isn鈥檛 - well, except (arguably) Rick Santorum.
Next up is the history of the Iowa caucuses, where the that 鈥渙f the 11 competitive caucuses since 1980, the candidate leading in the polls a month in advance won them 8 times. That鈥檚 a pretty good batting average for Mr. Gingrich,鈥� with the caveat that 鈥渋n the five prior cases where a candidate had a single-digit lead, he won twice but lost three times.鈥�
Third, Gingrich鈥檚 strength is likely understated by the most recent polling - as the , he has the strongest support of Iowa鈥檚 top contenders among the most committed conservatives and he鈥檚 a top choice for former Herman Cain backers.
And, finally, there鈥檚 this: Mitt Romney .
Go beyond:
- What do you think of Gingrich鈥檚 chances? Tell .
- Want to see Newt show up close? to see if he鈥檒l be near you in the near future.
- Read up on the .
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