Jerry Brown tax hike suddenly on the ropes. Does he have time to save it?
| Los Angeles
Support for Gov. Jerry Brown鈥檚 plan to raise billions in taxes 鈥� necessary to square California鈥檚 budget and avoid draconian budget cuts that would be triggered automatically 鈥� has suddenly and seriously slipped to below 50 percent, two major state polls say.
The question now becomes whether Governor Brown and his supporters can rescue the tax measure, known as Proposition 30, with less than two weeks left before Election Day.
On Thursday Brown brushed off news of the new poll results and expressed confidence that he would push the measure through, but history and conventional wisdom hold that tax measures rarely gain support in the waning days of a campaign.
Experts note also that the governor鈥檚 ability to win back support is hampered by the fact that a majority of the 40 percent of Californians who vote absentee have already cast their ballots.
Prop. 30 would temporarily raise taxes on individuals earning more than $250,000 annually and impose a quarter-cent hike in the state sales tax. If it fails, $6 billion in automatic spending cuts would be triggered starting Jan. 1, mostly from K-12 schools, but also from health and human services, including care for the disabled and seniors.
According to the new USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll, support for Brown鈥檚 initiative has plunged nine percentage points in the past month to just 46 percent of registered voters.
A separate poll by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) put support among likely voters at 48 percent, below the 50 percent needed for passage. That鈥檚 a four-point drop from their own poll a month ago.
Analysts say that more than just the state鈥檚 finances are imperiled if the ballot measure fails.
鈥淭he future of his governorship, indeed his legacy, rest on the passage of Prop. 30,鈥� says David McCuan, professor of political science at Sonoma State University. 鈥淚f you need further evidence of this just look to how Arnold Schwarzenegger was emasculated with many trips to the ballot.鈥�
Professor McCuan and others say the drop in support has come for two primary reasons. One is that Brown has failed to sufficiently convince voters to pass the measure, relying on the negative argument, that 鈥渋f it doesn鈥檛 pass, education will suffer鈥� 鈥� which many voters felt as a threat. The other reason is that a rival tax measure, Prop. 38, backed by deep pocket millionaires, began negative attack ads on Brown鈥檚 measure.
鈥淭ax measures in California face two problems: The voters rarely approve tax increases, and intense moneyed opposition usually means voters are confused and thus will vote 鈥榥o,鈥� 鈥� says Robert Stern, former president of the Center for Governmental Studies.
Noting that only once in the last 10 years has a tax been passed 鈥� a millionaire's tax for mental health funding 鈥� he concludes, 鈥渋t is not unusual that Brown's initiative probably will lose.鈥�
Several analysts agree that turnout will be key, a conclusion that appears to hurt Brown if another poll finding is taken into consideration: the gap in enthusiasm between Republican and Democratic voters for their respective presidential nominees.
According to the PPIC poll, 70 percent of Republicans surveyed said they are 鈥渕ore enthusiastic鈥� about voting this year over the past, whereas just 61 percent of Democrats gave that response.
鈥淭his is not 2008 when Democratic enthusiasm was overwhelming,鈥� says Mark Baldassare, president of PPIC.聽鈥淭his will depend on precisely how many Democrats 鈥� younger,聽Latino, women, and all the rest 鈥� actually feel compelled to get to the polls.鈥�
One out-of-state analyst thinks the timing of the PPIC poll 鈥� after the first presidential debate, but before the second and third 鈥� might have skewed Democratic enthusiasm downwards.
鈥淚t might be reflecting the energy and enthusiasm Romney created by winning the first debate and not totally reflecting the perception that Obama won the second and the third,鈥� says Matthew Hale, professor of political science at Seton Hall University in New Jersey. 鈥淭hat would explain the excitement shown by Republicans and lack of enthusiasm shown by Democrats.鈥�
He thinks Democrats are always going to struggle on the enthusiasm question 鈥渂ecause they were irrationally enthusiastic about Obama in 2008. Reaching those heights again is almost impossible.鈥�
Several analysts say the reason support for Brown鈥檚 tax measure has waned is simple. Californians just don鈥檛 like taxes and are especially down on politicians at the moment.
鈥淰oters are still waiting for the state to show some legitimate progress in reducing its costs before they pony up more money to fund programs,鈥� says Michael Shires, professor of public policy at Pepperdine University in Malibu, Calif.
鈥淭his administration has relied on reducing services to its most vulnerable residents over cutting what voters see as a bloated and out-of-control public salary and pension system,鈥� says Professor Shires. 鈥淭he governor and legislature have not done enough to convince voters that they are taking real action to reel in skyrocketing public salaries, benefits and pensions. Until they do, any tax increase will be a hard sale.鈥�
Claremont McKenna College government professor Jack Pitney thinks Brown鈥檚 high-profile support of expensive, high-speed rail in the past year has done him in.
鈥淧assing high-speed rail was a huge political mistake,鈥� he says. 鈥淚f the state can afford an unpopular multi-billion-dollar construction project, many voters may think, 鈥榃hy does it need to threaten us with education cuts?鈥� 鈥�
