海角大神

Coming only days after two prominent members of the Obama administration professed their support for gay marriage, a vote on the subject Tuesday in North Carolina 鈥� a key swing state 鈥� could complicate the president's reelection efforts. 聽

The ballot initiative would ban聽same-sex marriage and civil unions, and polls suggest that it is likely to pass. Yet earlier this week, Vice President聽Joe Biden and Education Secretary Arne Duncan offered their support for gay marriage. Caught between the swing voters who could tilt the presidential election and his more-liberal base, President Obama has so far resisted聽pressure to endorse same-sex marriage even as he has continued to solicit gay donors aggressively.

This has put him in an increasingly tough spot 鈥� and the North Carolina vote could make his balancing act even tougher.聽

鈥淭he gay marriage issue is an awkward one for Obama at present, given his differing views on the issue with his own vice president and other administration officials,鈥� says Steven Schier, a political scientist at聽Carleton聽College聽in聽Northfield,聽Minn. 鈥淚t's an issue that Obama wishes would go away until after the November elections. The聽North Carolina聽vote makes it less likely Obama will get his wish.鈥�

A poll by the Raleigh, N.C.-based firm, Public Policy Polling found that 55 percent of respondents support the amendment while 39 percent oppose. But the majority of voters don鈥檛 know that the amendment not only gets rid of same-sex marriage but outlaws civil unions and domestic partnerships as well.

鈥淲hen people are informed of this, support for the amendment drops significantly,鈥� says Matthew Hall, a political scientist at聽Seton Hall University in South Orange, N.J.

According to the Human Rights Campaign, 29 states have passed constitutional amendments that ban marriage for gay and lesbian couples. Of those, 20 are red states that consistently vote for Republican presidential candidates. North Carolina is the only Southern state without such a ban.聽

鈥淔rom a regional perspective,聽North Carolina聽is late to the game,鈥� says Lara Brown, a聽political scientist at聽Villanova University in Philadelphia and聽author of 鈥淛ockeying for the American Presidency.鈥�

But in some ways, that could be construed as positive news for the president. The fact that it has taken North Carolina so long to consider the issue "suggests that聽North Carolina聽may in fact be more liberal than its Southern neighbors,鈥� she adds.

Others go further,聽suggesting that passage of the measure could help Mr. Obama in聽North Carolina.聽

鈥淚t gives his base voters something else聽to get angry and get involved about when November comes around,鈥� says Professor Hale.

But in other ways, the demographics of the issue work against Obama.

"This is not solely a Republican issue,鈥� says Professor Brown.聽鈥淎frican-Americans, who not only聽often comprise a significant portion聽of聽the Democratic Party in Southern states but are also strongly religious,聽have聽typically been against聽gay marriage."

Regardless, it was a missed opportunity for presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney to make headway in North Carolina, says Bryan Fischer of the American Family Association.

He is surprised that Mr. Romney didn鈥檛 come out in favor of the聽North Carolina聽amendment as the Rev. Billy Graham has. 鈥淚f you are looking to gain political support, there are a lot of worse places you can stand than next to Billy Graham,鈥� he says.

He also notes that Obama called off a planned trip to the state Tuesday. 鈥淗e obviously didn鈥檛 want to be asked awkward questions about natural marriage," Mr. Fischer says. "This issue is the third rail of his campaign right now.鈥�