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President Obama won't win reelection, says poll

Some 55 percent of Americans surveyed say President Obama won't win the 2012 election, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll. Will Obama's underdog strategy work?

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AP Photo/Susan Walsh
President Barack Obama speaks at Benjamin Banneker Academic High School in Washington in late September.

According to a new , just 37 percent of Americans believe President Obama will win reelection; 55 percent believe he will lose to the Republican nominee.

This is not great news for the president, not necessarily because Americans are psychic, but because expectations often shape reality.

In particular, a widespread belief that Obama will lose could widen the already problematic 鈥溾 for the president.

It鈥檚 a tricky balance for the White House. Many of the president鈥檚 natural supporters are not feeling especially fired up this time around - particularly compared to the white-hot intensity seen among Republicans. The Obama campaign clearly believes they must and create a sense of urgency.

To that end, they have been sounding the alarm that this will be a hard-fought election. Last week, top strategist David Axelrod said the election would be a Today, in an interview with ABC News, Obama himself actually agreed that the odds were against him and

But it鈥檚 also possible to take this strategy too far. If Obama鈥檚 supporters become overly pessimistic about his chances of winning, then that could make them LESS likely to turn out to vote (鈥渋f he鈥檚 going to lose anyway, what鈥檚 the point?鈥). And having just 37 percent of Americans think you will win may be more discouraging than it is motivating.

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