Trump calls for mass deportations. How would that work?
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Sarah Matusek Staff writer
Illegal immigration is a major campaign issue for Donald Trump 鈥� and has become part of his survival story. As he turned his head to view a related chart at a July 13 rally, a bullet meant to assassinate him only wounded his ear.
In 2015 during his first presidential campaign, Mr. Trump said he planned to deport 11 million people unauthorized to be in the United States. He downsized that scope to 听once elected the following year. That鈥檚 closer to the level of deportations, along with pandemic-era expulsions, he oversaw as president.
When the number of unauthorized migrant encounters spiked after Mr. Trump left office, Republicans urged President Joe Biden to take executive action to curb the influx, rather than wait for Congress to pass a border bill. They pointed to how the Trump administration used executive actions to rein in the release of unauthorized immigrants into the country, and they expect the same tack if he鈥檚 voted in again. That vision includes what Mr. Trump 鈥� and the Republican Party platform 鈥� calls 鈥渢he largest deportation operation in American history.鈥�
Why We Wrote This
The Republican Party has sought to capitalize on voter concerns over record-high illegal immigration during the Biden years. Here we look at the feasibility of a pillar of Donald Trump鈥檚 plan for addressing that influx and disincentivizing such crossings.
鈥淓ven larger than that of President Dwight D. Eisenhower,鈥� former President Trump said at the party convention last month, recalling a controversial mass deportation campaign of Mexicans in the 1950s. During the event, supporters waved 鈥淢ass deportation now!鈥� signs. Immigrant advocates, meanwhile, decry those plans,听raising family separation and due process concerns.
The Democratic Party nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, has not emphasized immigration nearly as much on the campaign trail so far. But in Arizona last week, Ms. Harris called for 鈥渃omprehensive [immigration] reform that includes strong border security and an earned pathway to citizenship.鈥�听Republicans call her the Biden administration鈥檚 鈥�border czar,鈥� though supporters say her assignment had a narrower purview.
Conservative critics also link her to record-high levels of encounters with Border Patrol agents at the U.S. southern border during the Biden-Harris administration 鈥撎齧ore than triple the overall encounters under Mr. Trump.听Those figures tracked by the Border Patrol have dropped to their lowest point since President Biden took office, after he took executive action in June to limit asylum claims.听
Americans, meanwhile, are politically split on whether to deport all unauthorized immigrants, a group estimated at more than 11 million. Most Republicans 鈥撎�84% 鈥撎齠avor this measure, reports a June Gallup听. That support drops to 41% for independents and 22% for Democrats.听
What has Mr. Trump said about mass deportation this election?听
While the Republican presidential nominee鈥檚 exact plans for mass deportations are vague, they鈥檙e a frequent talking point,听which he repeated Monday in a conversation with Elon Musk. 听听
In an extensive April with Time magazine, Mr. Trump said he had 鈥渘o choice鈥� but to start mass deportations, if elected, due to the number of migrants who have entered unlawfully since he left office. When pressed for plan details, he said he鈥檇 work with the National Guard and local law enforcement, and 鈥渟tart with the criminals that are coming in.鈥澨�
Mr. Trump鈥檚 campaign website highlights a plan for him to use National Guard and local law enforcement in 鈥渃ooperative states鈥� to 鈥渁ssist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals.鈥� But in the interview, he left open the possibility of using other branches of the U.S. military 鈥渋f necessary.鈥�
Recent presidents, including George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Mr. Trump, and Mr. Biden, have deployed National Guard troops to the U.S. southern border in support roles. However, 鈥渁 number of legal considerations may arise鈥� if the president directs the military to enforce immigration law, according to a 2023 Congressional Research Service report.听
Mr. Trump has also pledged to 鈥渟top the outrageous abuse of parole authority鈥� under the current White House, which has permitted hundreds of thousands of immigrants in recent years to live and work temporarily in the U.S.听
How feasible are Mr. Trump鈥檚 deportation plans?听
Immigration experts cite not just logistical but also legal hurdles to rounding up and expelling many people in the U.S. without permission.
Lawsuits against such plans are likely and may temper any rollout. A conservative Supreme Court justice underscored immigrants鈥� right to due process back in 1993. The Fifth Amendment 鈥渆ntitles aliens to due process of law in deportation proceedings,鈥� Justice Antonin Scalia in Reno v. Flores.
The U.S. could expand deportations with three groups of people that are already deportable, says John Fabbricatore, former field office director for Immigration and Customs Enforcement鈥檚 (ICE) Enforcement and Removal Operations in Denver. That includes those with outstanding orders of removal that have yet to be completed, immigrants with multiple criminal convictions, and people who entered the U.S. lawfully but then overstayed their visas.听
Removing those unauthorized immigrants would keep the government 鈥渂usy for years,鈥� says Mr. Fabbricatore, a Republican running in Colorado鈥檚 6th Congressional District. 鈥淵ou鈥檙e going to have this deterrent that鈥檚 going to cause a lot of them to leave, just on the fact that they know [the country is] being serious about our immigration laws now,鈥� he adds.
Immigrant advocates are bracing for impact.
鈥淥ur biggest concern is that we are going to be returning people to countries where they face harm,鈥� says Vanessa Dojaquez-Torres of HIAS, a nonprofit serving refugees and asylum-seekers.听
鈥淲e would rather see comprehensive immigration reform,鈥� says Ms. Dojaquez-Torres, an attorney who has represented asylum-seekers. Unauthorized immigrants who don鈥檛 have criminal histories, pay taxes, and are 鈥渏ust trying to work,鈥� she says, deserve a path to legal status.
Can agencies handle more deportations?
Expanding deportations raises logistical questions around capacity.听听
Currently, ICE has up to 41,500 detention beds and around 6,000 Enforcement and Removal Operations officers 鈥� compared with millions of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. Cooperation from local law enforcement around the detaining of potentially deportable immigrants varies across the country, often due to politics.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 have the manpower to be going after everyone who is removable,鈥� says a spokesperson for ICE, adding that the agency focuses enforcement 鈥渙n criminals and those who pose a threat鈥� to public safety.听
In his Time interview, Mr. Trump said he 鈥渨ould not rule out鈥� building new migrant detention camps, but 鈥渢here wouldn鈥檛 be that much of a need for them, because of the fact that we鈥檙e going to be moving [migrants] out.鈥� Yet if elected, he would face hurdles quickening the pace of certain deportation processes.听
Many deportations rely on orders from immigration court, a system long under strain. The immigration court backlog holds some 3.7 million , according to Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University. Meanwhile, the government around 700 immigration judges.
In addition to more judges, the system also needs more support staff 鈥渢o make sure you have a fully functioning, efficient immigration court,鈥� says Mimi Tsankov, president of the National Association of Immigration Judges. 鈥淚nterpreters have to be ordered; documents have to have been submitted; attorneys have to be ready.鈥�
How could a mass deportation plan impact U.S. citizens?听
For one, many unauthorized immigrants live with a spouse or children who do have a lawful status, or are even U.S. citizens. Deportation can lead to family separation and increased听socioeconomic hardship in immigrant communities.听听
Policy experts also argue that widespread deportations would in significant ways, due to the contributions of unauthorized workers in sectors such as food and agriculture. Border security advocates, however, say听听linked to unauthorized immigrants can be prevented by swifter deportations.
Some analysts also worry that more lawfully present residents could become ensnared in a deportation dragnet already known for error. At Northwestern University鈥檚 Deportation Research Clinic, Jacqueline Stevens estimates that 1% of removal cases involve U.S. citizens.
鈥淚f U.S. citizens are being unlawfully detained and deported, that tells us a lot about how everybody else is being treated,鈥� says Professor Stevens, founding director of the center. She says one safeguard could be securing the right to free counsel in immigration court, which only handles civil cases.
Major, lasting overhauls to the immigration system typically come from Congress, which hasn鈥檛 united on such measures since the 1990s. If gridlock on Capitol Hill continues, the next president 鈥� from either party 鈥� may resort to more executive action on unauthorized immigrants.
Read these companion articles:
Deportation 101: How removing people from the US really works
Deportation sounds like a straightforward term, but it鈥檚 complicated in practice. Here鈥檚 context for听understanding the rise in deportations听under President Joe Biden and Republican proposals calling for more.
How Biden and Trump compare on border crossings and immigration
Immigration is a top issue in the U.S. presidential race amid questions about the pace of illegal border crossings and candidate track records. Here鈥檚听what the available data tells us.
