Will voters reward Biden鈥檚 tougher immigration stance? The view from a swing district.
| GREELEY, COLO.
Willie Ortega didn鈥檛 vote in 2020. Now with immigration top of mind, the Colorado veteran, who leans Democratic, is mulling a vote for Donald Trump.
President Joe Biden last week made it harder to access asylum 鈥撀爌erhaps his toughest border action to date. Mr. Ortega knows this. But he still thinks Mr. Trump has the 鈥渄iscipline鈥� to secure the southern border against illegal crossings and drugs.听
The United States is 鈥渙ne of the most powerful聽nations in the world. And why can鈥檛 you do that?鈥� says Mr. Ortega, whose grandparents came from Mexico. He pauses on the sidewalk in downtown Greeley.听
Why We Wrote This
For some voters, President Joe Biden鈥檚 tougher border action may be too little, too late. Here鈥檚 the view from a competitive Colorado district in a state grappling with a migrant influx.
Democrats, he says, seem 鈥渁fraid to offend people鈥� by taking more of a stand on border security.
Ahead of the 2024 election, immigration remains a top concern for many Americans. That holds true in Colorado, where say the recent influx of Central and South American migrants to the state is a 鈥渃risis鈥� or 鈥渕ajor problem.鈥� And based on voter interviews this week, such concerns also resonate in Mr. Ortega鈥檚 8th Congressional District 鈥� home of a competitive race that could reshape Congress on Election Day.听Candidates here, where around 39% of residents are Latino, are promoting their own varied immigration stories as part of their campaigns.听
Five months to November, adjustments like Mr. Biden鈥檚 new policy may not move the needle for most voters. But it鈥檚 clear that ongoing challenges of border management hit close to home in this interior blue state, without an easy resolution in sight.听
In the end, voter decisions will reflect a partisan lens 鈥� and 鈥渨ho can push the messaging harder,鈥� says Kyle Saunders, professor of political science at Colorado State University.
A toss-up district聽
In 2020, Mr. Biden beat Mr. Trump in Colorado by 13.5 percentage points. But in the area of the new 8th Congressional District, drawn up in 2021 due to Colorado鈥檚 population growth,聽the Democrat鈥檚 lead to under 5 percentage points.
鈥淭here鈥檚 definitely a world in which Trump could carry this district in 2024,鈥� says Erin Covey, analyst with The Cook Political Report. To her, this possibility raises the question of whether the Democratic incumbent, Rep. Yadira Caraveo, can 鈥渙utrun Biden.鈥澛燭he Cook Political Report the 8th District as a toss-up race that leans Democratic.
As other border measures have failed to gain GOP votes in Congress, the first-term congresswoman, trained as a pediatrician and the daughter of immigrants from Mexico, drafted her own focused on expanding resources to receiving cities and funding law enforcement.听Though Dr. Caraveo was 鈥減leased鈥� to see executive action on the border last week, she thinks it fell short, Colorado Public Radio.听
鈥淚鈥檝e said repeatedly the President needs to take further action on this issue,鈥� she told the outlet. 鈥淩epublicans in Congress have demonstrated time and time again they are more interested in using immigration as a political tool than they are in working with the President to solve it as a matter of national security.鈥� A spokesperson for the congresswoman says her team could not accommodate an interview request.听
Running in this month鈥檚 Republican primary in the district, state Rep. Gabe Evans, a veteran and former police officer whose grandparents emigrated from Mexico, laments the lapse of Trump policies that expelled migrants and forced them to wait in Mexico. He also criticizes state restrictions limiting local law enforcement coordination with the federal government regarding immigrants suspected of crimes.
鈥淪ecure the border 鈥� that鈥檚 Step 1. For everything, that鈥檚 Step 1. Because a deportation means nothing if they just come right back,鈥� says the Trump-endorsed candidate. 鈥淎fter creating the issue ... now all of a sudden, he鈥檚 interested in fixing it,鈥� Mr. Evans says of President Biden.
The campaign of the other Republican in the primary, former state lawmaker Janak Joshi, did not respond to interview requests. Originally from India, he supports mass deportations of people living in the U.S. without authorization.听
Facing ire over record-high illegal immigration, President Biden last week his new southern border policies in light of 鈥淐ongress鈥檚 failure to update an immigration and asylum system that is simply broken.鈥澛�
The changes don鈥檛 physically 鈥渃lose鈥� the border. Instead, the government has further limited access to asylum for migrants who enter illegally.听This is triggered when Border Patrol apprehensions 鈥撀爋ften a proxy for illegal crossings 鈥� reach a daily average of 2,500 or more, which they have for .听
A CBS News/YouGov 聽conducted after the executive action was announced found that 70% of voters nationally support the policy.
In theory, the new rule makes it easier for the government to deport more people, faster 鈥� and 聽suggests this has begun. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which carries out deportations, did not immediately respond to a request for confirmation.
Immigration鈥檚 local impact聽
Conservatives, meanwhile, like Mr. Evans, have panned the policy as too little, too late.听
鈥淚 just think it鈥檚 a political stunt, because the borders are still open,鈥� says Joe Petrocco, an unaffiliated former Republican in Brighton. Seated in a break room at Petrocco Farms, a large, family-owned produce farm聽where he serves as vice president, he raises population growth and shrinking rural areas.
鈥淚 have just concerns about our cities getting too big and our infrastructure not being able to manage,鈥� says the farmer.
Some 20 miles south, Denver has of more than 42,000 migrants since late 2022, though not all have stayed. Over the past two years, the Colorado capital and state have spent at least $100 million on migrant shelter, education, and other services such as health care. Many Coloradans are moved to help, . But many others harbor public safety and spending concerns tied to the new immigrants, who are sometimes federally barred from work permits, at least initially.
鈥淭o just mass-move them in here just is not a way our economy鈥檚 going to work,鈥� says Ernest Kemm, a Republican in Commerce City who refurbishes homes. 鈥淲e鈥檙e having to foot that bill.鈥�
Frustration over federal inaction is also increasingly shared on the left. But voters like Erin Bauer, a Democrat who works at a software company, see the June 4 executive action as modest progress.听
鈥淲hen parties can鈥檛 come together, I鈥檓 glad that someone can step up and make an effort,鈥� she says, exiting her gym in Johnstown. 鈥淵ou have to work together to solve those problems. And when people aren鈥檛 willing to do that, someone else has to step in, and that鈥檚 what [President Biden] did.鈥澛�
Immigrant rights groups are challenging the legality of the new policies in a filed Wednesday. The plaintiffs cite the right to seek asylum under 鈥撀爀ven if a migrant enters the country illegally between ports of entry. That matters to unaffiliated voter Jourdan Lamb, an addiction counselor who leans left.听
Making it harder to apply for asylum? 鈥淭hat鈥檚 not liberal,鈥� says Ms. Lamb, watching her son splash through sprinklers at a park in Northglenn. 鈥淚 think the United States has more than enough resources to be taking care of other people that need it.鈥�
