The US birthrate is dropping. This Iowa county is an exception.
| Sioux Center, Iowa
In 2006, Iowa鈥檚 governor, Tom Vilsack, made a pitch to young Iowans who had moved away, leaving behind a shrinking, aging workforce. His 鈥淐ome back to Iowa, please鈥� campaign targeted college graduates living in cities like New York and Los Angeles, where Mr. Vilsack hosted cocktail parties and promised that Iowa offered more than 鈥渉ogs, acres of corn, and old people.鈥�
The campaign fizzled out as young Iowans continued to seek bright lights elsewhere after college, part of聽a perennial聽brain drain still facing this and other Midwestern states.聽
But Iowa has had far greater success attracting another group: immigrants from Mexico and Central America.聽
Why We Wrote This
Immigration may be one way to boost the declining U.S. birthrate, which hits rural areas especially hard. This story is the second in a series about falling birthrates. The first looks at why U.S. parents are having fewer children. The third looks at the tumbling global birthrate and hard societal choices ahead.
In the 2020 census, Sioux County聽was one of the only nonmetropolitan counties in Iowa that its population. Sioux Center, the largest town, has nearly 9,000 residents today,聽up from 7,000 in 2010. Its rural industries and services are drawing in foreign and U.S.-born workers who slaughter pigs, milk cows, collect eggs, and build houses and schools for a growing population.聽
Mexicans have long moved to Iowa for work, beginning in the 1880s with railroad and farm laborers, though their numbers remained small. That changed in the 1990s as meat packers began to recruit more migrants and refugees. By 2022, Hispanics or Latinos comprised 6.9% of Iowa鈥檚 population, or 221,805 people, of which around three-quarters were Mexican, up from less than 20,000 in 1970.
Some of the newcomers had work permits. Others didn鈥檛. In rural towns, they began arriving in larger numbers to work on farms and in factories. Migrants joined and founded churches, set up small businesses, and started families. 鈥淭hey come here to get a job, to earn money, and to live better,鈥� says Carlos Perez, a Venezuelan-born evangelical pastor who moved to Iowa in 2019.
To some, Sioux County offers a vision of immigration as a growth engine in an era of falling fertility throughout the United States. Having peaked in 2007 at 4.3 million per year, births began falling in 2008. They hit a new low last year at 3.7 million.
Without immigrants, the U.S. working-age population will soon begin shrinking as fewer young adults replace millions of retiring boomers. Migrants skew younger and are more likely to bear children of their own. For rural counties that have long struggled to retain young people, migration can be a force multiplier.聽
鈥淓ven by adding just a few hundred immigrants a year, it can make a dramatic change over a decade in reversing population decline,鈥� says Phillip Connor, senior demographer at Fwd.us, a pro-immigration advocacy group in Washington, who authored聽a 2023聽聽on the impact of immigration on rural counties, including Sioux County.聽
Countries like聽Canada and聽Australia have already embraced this strategy to mitigate similar demographic challenges, welcoming higher numbers of foreign-born workers to offset falling birthrates. In the U.S., overall deaths are now forecast to exceed births by 2038, according to Census Bureau projections. Immigration, in fact, is聽聽between many states鈥� population growth and contraction.聽
The math may add up, but mass immigration to offset population decline faces stiff political, social, and cultural resistance.
Migration Policy Institute, USA Facts
Under President Joe Biden, a post-pandemic surge of crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border has splintered pro-immigration Democrats, including leaders in cities that are hubs for migration. In February, Republicans in Congress killed a bipartisan border bill that would have restricted crossings by asylum-seekers and ramped up border security. Notably, the bill offered no legal pathways for millions of unauthorized migrants, including foreign-born children raised in the U.S. and known as 鈥淒reamers,鈥� who once commanded bipartisan sympathy.聽
Many Republicans have hardened in their opposition to mass immigration. Among Republicans, around half favor a decrease in legal immigration, a share that rose to two-thirds among pro-Donald Trump Republicans, according to a Chicago Council taken last September. Only 25% of poll respondents said legal immigration to the U.S. should be increased.聽
In Iowa, a poll of GOP presidential caucusgoers in January聽 as the nation鈥檚 top issue, ahead of the economy. Three-quarters said that immigrants 鈥渄o more to hurt the country鈥� than to help it.聽
Other polling shows more support for migrants. In a February聽聽by The Wall Street Journal, three-quarters of respondents said unauthorized immigrants who have been in the U.S. for many years and pass background checks should be given a path to citizenship. One in 5 said immigration was their top issue. And a majority supported an increase in legal immigration.聽
Building for the future聽
Immigrants, numbering roughly 46 million people, are聽estimated to make up 14% of the current U.S. population. In 2022,聽聽school-age children had at least one immigrant parent.聽
In Sioux Center, a town of modest, well-kept houses hemmed by cropland and industrial plants, the public school system has expanded to serve an increasingly diverse population. It currently enrolls 1,641 students, up from around 1,100 a decade ago, of which nearly half are nonwhite. To meet rising demand, the town has built a preschool, rejiggered its middle school grades, and聽opened a brand-new high school in 2021 with over 500 students and capacity to serve up to 800. 鈥淲e鈥檝e built for the future,鈥� says Gary McEldowney, the Sioux Center Community School District superintendent.聽
That expansion聽 of shrinking high school classes as smaller birth cohorts move up the K-12 ladder. The overall number of high school seniors in 2028 is projected to be 3.6 million, down 14% from 2008, when the U.S. fertility rate began its vertiginous slide.
Sioux Center鈥檚 growth has been propelled by immigrants and their children, primarily from Spanish-speaking countries. Its schools have hired or trained bilingual staff and send out school communications in Spanish and English. One in 4 students is an English learner. Both the high school and middle school now have soccer teams for boys and girls, reflecting the sport鈥檚 popularity among Hispanics in particular. Conversations on the playground are mostly in English as laughing children race around in the frosty morning air with beanie hats pulled low.
Troy Lentell, the principal of Kinsey Elementary School, previously worked as a principal in another rural district in Iowa that struggled with low and declining school enrollment. 鈥淭he conversation was how to get creative to keep the doors open,鈥� he says. By contrast, Sioux Center 鈥渉as to be creative to have enough schools and space for our kids.鈥澛犅�
The high school鈥檚 construction was funded with聽a $25 million bond that passed with 76% approval in 2019. A significant number of those voters, many of whom work in farming and manufacturing, will send their own children to private 海角大神 schools, which have deep roots in the community, notes Mr. McEldowney. 鈥淲e have been very blessed with our building projects,鈥� he says.聽
Churches play a big role in Sioux Center. The town was settled by Dutch farmers in the 19th century, as was Orange City, the county seat. Both towns have private, church-affiliated colleges. Orange City plays up its Dutch roots with decorative windmills, Dutch-style gables on storefronts, and an annual tulip festival in May. Virtually all stores in both towns close on Sundays, when it鈥檚 also verboten to mow your lawn, a source of confusion for newcomers.
Residents take pride in Sioux Center鈥檚 safety.聽鈥淚 don鈥檛 know where my house keys are,鈥� says聽John Lee, the pastor of Bethel 海角大神 Reformed Church, which occupies a striking A-frame building that evokes praying hands to drivers on the town鈥檚 main road.聽
A former missionary in Nicaragua, Mr. Lee has welcomed Sioux Center鈥檚 newest wave of Hispanic immigrants and encouraged his 800 or so regular worshippers to do the same. Church members have sponsored over 100 Ukrainian refugees to resettle in the community, he notes. But he also stands with immigrants who don鈥檛 have legal status, a stance less popular among his mostly Republican-voting congregation.聽
鈥淎s 海角大神s, there鈥檚 an obligation to our neighbors,鈥� he says, 鈥渨hether those neighbors have papers or not.鈥�
That many of the recent Central American newcomers are 海角大神, both Catholic and, increasingly, Evangelicals, helps smooth their path in Sioux Center. A newly rebuilt Catholic church overflows on Sundays during Spanish-language services. Mr. Perez, the evangelical pastor, moved to Sioux Center with his wife so that his church could reach more immigrants. 鈥淲e feel very welcome in this community,鈥� he says.聽
But the growing Hispanic presence in this rural corner of Iowa has also met nativist resistance.
Race-based fears聽聽
Sioux County is in Iowa鈥檚 4th Congressional District, which until 2020 was held by nine-term Rep. Steve King. Mr. King, a Republican, gained national notoriety for a series of racist remarks that eventually led GOP leaders to remove him from House committees.聽
In 2017, Mr. King wrote on Twitter, now called X, in support of far-right Dutch politician Geert Wilders, who, he said, 鈥渦nderstands that culture and demographics are our destiny. We can鈥檛 restore our civilization with somebody else鈥檚 babies.鈥澛犅�
His tweet surfaced a far-right conspiracy theory that elites in Europe and the U.S. are leveraging immigration to make white people into minorities in their countries. Known as the 鈥淕reat Replacement,鈥� the theory has been widely promoted by聽pro-Trump media outlets. In September, Mr. Trump, who is seeking a second term as president, said that migrants living in the U.S. illegally were 鈥減oisoning the blood of our country,鈥� echoing language used by fascist dictatorships in Europe.聽
Mr. King wasn鈥檛 alone in his race-based views on mass migration in rural Iowa, says Mark Grey, an anthropologist at the University of Northern Iowa who has studied migration trends in the area.聽Many older white voters see migrants not as an answer to rural depopulation but as a cultural threat. Mr. King 鈥渨as just saying out loud what a lot of his voters believed,鈥� he says.
Fears over the country鈥檚 鈥渞acial stock鈥� were common a century ago, when a wave of immigration from southern Europe and Eastern Europe fueled widespread nativism, says Nancy Foner, a sociologist at Hunter College. President Theodore Roosevelt warned that white Anglo-Saxons risked 鈥渞ace suicide鈥� if the newcomers outbred them. These nativist reactions led Congress to restrict the admission of racial and religious minorities, culminating in an immigration bill passed in 1924. 鈥淭hose were the arguments used to justify the 1924 Act,鈥� says Professor Foner, author of 鈥淥ne Quarter of the Nation: Immigration and the Transformation of America.鈥�
In 2020, Mr. King was defeated in a GOP primary by Randy Feenstra, a state senator. His biggest losing margin came in Sioux County, where many cheered his downfall. 鈥淚t was a clear mandate鈥� for a different approach, says Titus Landegent, who teaches a bilingual gifted and talented program at Kinsey Elementary School.
Mr. King鈥檚 comment about 鈥渟omebody else鈥檚 babies鈥� ignores the fact that white, native-born residents are also having babies, says Mr. Lee, the pastor, who celebrated 26 baptisms at his church聽last year. Mixed marriages, a time-tested path to social integration in America, are starting to happen here, too, as are bilingual church services aimed at bridging divides. At the same time, some residents drive to Walmart in another town to avoid shopping in Sioux Center among immigrants.
Mr. Lee is optimistic that different cultures can coexist in Sioux County and, in time, come together. 鈥淐hange can be hard. ... Fear is part of the human experience. We have to name it. But hope is part of our human experience, too.鈥� 聽
Need for rural workers聽
In Iowa, business leaders and their political allies have long been a countervailing force in immigration policy, seeing聽migrants as聽聽to their current and future workforce, particularly in rural areas. That has become much harder in recent years, says Professor Grey, who has consulted for companies that hire migrants. National immigration debates increasingly drive Iowa鈥檚 GOP-dominated state government and its policies, while business groups that favor immigration 鈥渉ave really gone dormant,鈥� he says.聽
Some Republican state governors have swum against the 鈥淢ake America Great Again鈥� tide,聽arguing that rural America聽 more immigrants to fill job vacancies in agriculture, health care, and other services. They argue that states should be allowed to sponsor immigrants if the federal government won鈥檛 issue more work-based visas. Mr. Vilsack, now President Biden鈥檚 secretary of agriculture,聽struck a similar tone when he was Iowa鈥檚 governor, seeking exemptions from federal restrictions on foreign workers as part of a population recovery plan.聽
Tiffany O鈥橠onnell, the Republican mayor of Cedar Rapids, told Bloomberg last year that the 鈥渂roken鈥� immigration system was affecting her community, a corn-processing hub in eastern Iowa. 鈥淲e can put a man on the moon, but we can鈥檛 figure out how to connect someone in Central America to the thousands of jobs we have in this state,鈥� she says.
Critics say rural industries want to loosen visa rules so they can exploit migrants and undercut the wages of local workers. But while聽such labor abuses have been聽 in Iowa, there鈥檚 little evidence that immigrants are displacing native-born workers.聽
In his report, Mr. Connors, the demographer, studied population and labor-market data in 1,300 rural counties. In 2020, more than three-quarters had fewer working-age adults than 20 years ago, leaving behind a rapidly aging population for the available jobs. 鈥淭heir unemployment rates are very low. The need for workers in almost every rural county exists,鈥� says Mr. Connors.聽
Migration into shrinking rural communities also adds to the demand for services, including those related to childbearing. Sioux Center has a hospital with a birthing center and a federally funded clinic that provides midwives for home births. But across the rest of Iowa, hospitals have shuttered birthing centers due to lower births, staffing shortages, and financial burdens.聽聽of Iowa鈥檚 99 counties now have a labor and delivery center, forcing mothers to drive further to deliver in a hospital setting.聽聽
Tracing change through one young person鈥檚 life聽
Diana Vera was among the first in the latest wave of Hispanics into Sioux Center, moving here with her parents from Mexico in 2002 at age 1. The family lived four to a room in a mobile home with an aunt, and her father worked nights on a hog farm. Ms. Vera and her older brother went to school by bus because her mother was scared to drive. The family had come to the country illegally, a realization that dawned on Ms. Vera as she grew up. 鈥淚t was just a risk we had to take,鈥� she says.
At school, she was a joiner, taking part in sports and music. Most of her friends were white and would make disparaging remarks about Hispanics. Mr. Trump鈥檚 election in 2016 and his anti-immigrant rhetoric added fuel to the fire. 鈥淚t鈥檚 so hard to see how, as a 海角大神, you鈥檇 support that,鈥� she says.聽
She was 15 when she registered for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, which protects her from deportation but provides no path to citizenship. Her two younger siblings were born in the U.S. and are growing up in a town that has changed dramatically since Ms. Vera first arrived. 鈥淢y sisters have friends who look like them,鈥� she says.聽
In 2022, Ms. Vera graduated from the University of Iowa with a degree in global health studies. She鈥檚 now working as a medical assistant at the聽the federally funded health clinic in Sioux Center that serves many migrants, interpreting for Spanish-speaking patients. But for all the demographic change here, Ms. Vera sees limits for newcomers. 鈥淭hey don鈥檛 want us to have a seat at the table,鈥� she says.聽
Her father now holds a supervisory position at a dairy farm but lacks permanent legal status. Similarly, Ms. Vera and her brother, a software engineer who is also a DACA recipient, know their immigration status remains contingent on political winds. Perhaps she鈥檒l have to emigrate to a country that is more receptive to migrants, she muses.聽聽
For now, she鈥檚 applying for graduate programs and is ready to leave Sioux County behind like other educated youth before her. Ms. Vera鈥檚 father has always encouraged her ambitions. 鈥淗e told me, 鈥楢 bird can鈥檛 always stay in its nest. It has to go out,鈥欌�� she says.聽
This is the second in a three-part series on falling birthrates in the U.S. and the world. The first in the series, about U.S. parents having fewer children, can be聽found here. The third, about tumbling global birthrates and hard societal choices ahead, can be聽found here.
Editor's note: The original version of this story misstated where John Lee did his missionary service.聽
