海角大神

And the Oscar for Best Picture goes to 鈥� well, your guess may be as good as anyone in the industry.聽

As movie fans know, there are often one or two films that are viewed as frontrunners for the Best Picture prize in the lead-up to the big night. Through factors including the previous prizes that films have won, movies are viewed as top contenders for Best Picture before the envelope is opened.聽

Last year, 鈥淏irdman鈥� and 鈥淏oyhood鈥� were viewed as the two films vying for dominance. The year before that, 鈥�12 Years a Slave鈥� and 鈥淕ravity鈥� were called the two rivals for the prize.聽

This year? Things aren鈥檛 quite as clear.聽

The movies 鈥淭he Big Short,鈥� 鈥淭he Revenant,鈥� and 鈥淪potlight鈥� are all viewed as contenders for the Best Picture prize, with some critics saying yet another movie like 鈥淢ad Max: Fury Road鈥� or 鈥淭he Martian鈥� could sneak in to win.聽

Different subject matter could be dividing voters this year. By the nature of the award, very dissimilar movies are often competing for the Best Picture prize. Movies with different stories and styles 鈥� like, for example, 2014鈥檚 鈥�12 Years a Slave鈥� and 鈥淕ravity鈥� 鈥� can be going up against one another.聽

鈥淚t鈥檚 amazing there can ever be any consensus,鈥� Robert Thompson, director of the Bleier Center for Television and Popular Culture at Syracuse University鈥檚 Newhouse School, says of the selection process for Best Picture.聽

鈥溾�� 鈥橢.T.鈥� and 鈥楪andhi,鈥欌�� he says, referring to two films that were nominated for the Best Picture award in 1983. 鈥淲hat do you do with that?鈥澛�

And that could be playing into the Best Picture race this year. 鈥淪potlight鈥� is a stolid journalism drama, full of serious discussions and quietly sorting through files. 鈥淭he Big Short,鈥� which tells the story of various financial experts who foresaw the 2008 crisis, is loud and moves quickly, with celebrity cameos and innovative ways of explaining financial terms to viewers. 鈥淭he Revenant鈥� is also quite different from its competitors 鈥� it鈥檚 a wilderness-set, violent drama about a nineteenth-century man trying to live in difficult conditions and looking for revenge.聽

鈥淭he frontrunners include some really, really different kinds of [movies],鈥� Thompson says.聽

In addition, awards given before the Academy Awards have been mostly bestowed on different films.

Awards from the Screen Actors Guild, the Producers Guild, and the Directors Guild of America as well as the Golden Globes are all followed by Oscars fans.聽For example, in 2013, when the historical drama 鈥淎rgo鈥� won the Golden Globe for best drama, the SAG Award for best cast, the best director prize from the Directors Guild for Ben Affleck, and the Producers Guild prize for best producers for Affleck, George Clooney, and Grant Heslov, awards season watchers would have viewed it as an upset if 鈥淎rgo鈥� didn鈥檛 win the big prize come Oscars night.

This year, the Golden Globe for best drama went to 鈥淭he Revenant,鈥� as did the Directors Guild award, but the Producers Guild chose 鈥淭he Big Short鈥� as their film of the year and the best cast award at the SAG Awards went to 鈥淪potlight.鈥�

The Directors Guild award is often a very strong predictor of what will win (the DGA chose the movie that later won Best Picture 90 percent of the time in the last 10 years), but "Revenant" is not nominated in a best screenplay category, and almost no film has won Best Picture without at least being nominated for a best screenplay prize. You see the trouble everyone's having.

鈥淭here is a tendency to look for what got earlier awards and it's all over the place,鈥� Thompson says.聽

Thompson says those trying to make an accurate prediction as to what will win Best Picture also shouldn鈥檛 count out social issues and, this year, the controversy over the lack of diversity among acting nominees, which led to rule changes for who can vote for the Oscars.聽

If voters want to support a movie that has some diversity behind the scenes, Thompson says they could look to 鈥淩evenant,鈥� which is directed by Mexican director Alejandro G. I帽谩rritu.聽

鈥淵ou've got a director, at least,鈥� Thompson says. 鈥淵ou've got some diversity.鈥澛�

One group that is probably happy about the lack of seeming certainty? The producers of the Oscars ceremony.聽

The telecast has struggled to grow its audience for almost two decades since the 1998 broadcast which saw 鈥淭itanic鈥� win Best Picture set a record for viewership. The Oscars still draw an amount of viewers that any broadcast TV show would envy, but last year鈥檚 ceremony drew the lowest total amount of viewers in six years.聽

鈥淭his is probably good news for the ratings of the broadcast,鈥� Thompson says. 鈥淭here really is the sense this could go any number of ways.鈥�