The future of tech in just one word: plastics
In the 2002 movie 鈥�Minority Report,鈥� director Steven Spielberg painted the future as a place where no surface was still. Newspapers updated in readers鈥� hands and advertisements talked to passersby. Even cereal boxes were animated.
Now, these technologies are finally arriving, albeit in a piecemeal fashion. One of the driving forces: breakthroughs in plastics-based electronics.
Such gadgets and displays offer several potential advantages over silicon-based electronics 鈥� chief among them, they can be manufactured by a cheaper and less energy-intensive process, they鈥檙e potentially more energy efficient, and they can bend.
The plastic electronics industry will be valued at $30 billion by 2015, and $250 billion by 2025, predicts IDTechEx, an electronics consulting company.
鈥淓xpect a whole host of innovative new applications to start appearing as plastic electronics comes of age,鈥� proclaims an article in the July issue of Physics World.
Bright start in 鈥榦rganic鈥� TVs
So-called organic light-emitting diodes (OLED) 鈥� 鈥渙rganic鈥� because, like all known life, they鈥檙e carbon-based 鈥� are poised to change everything from visual displays to ambient lighting.
Unlike liquid crystal displays (LCDs), OLED displays have no backlight. Each OLED pixel emits its own glow. This saves materials, energy, and space, allowing for ever thinner electronics. It also permits flexibility, viewing at obtuse angles, and, in some cases, visibility from both sides.
For years, however, OLED hopefuls have struggled with problems of durability and uneven wear. Pixels of different colors tended to wear out at different rates, leaving gaps in prototype screens. Researchers are overcoming these problems, say experts, but now the principal hurdle to a mass OLED display roll-out is the price.
In January, Sony introduced the first OLED TV in the United States. It鈥檚 11 inches wide and only 3 millimeters thick. But this tiny TV 鈥� puny even compared to old tube TVs 鈥� retails for $2,500 and lasts more than 30,000 hours 鈥� half as long as current LCDs.
Right now, Sony views the TV as a statement 鈥� 鈥渁 technology piece,鈥� says Greg Belloni, a company spokesman in San Diego, Calif. 鈥淲e have shown what we can do with this technology.鈥�
Price aside, the superior OLED display quality has many singing its praises.
鈥淥LEDs have profoundly beautiful color,鈥� says Lawrence Gasman, principle analyst at NanoMarkets, LC, in Glen Allen, Va. 鈥淚t is very, very impressive.鈥�
Samsung has larger OLED TV prototypes, as do several other companies, but they鈥檝e been slow to hit the mass market.
As the technology catches on over the next several years and prices begin to fall, Mr. Gasman and others imagine a generation of huge ultra high-definition televisions that roll up after use. Thin plastic sheets on office walls may do double duty as monitors. OLED wallpaper could light a room.
The OLED display and lighting market could be worth $10.9 billion by 2012, and $15.5 billion by 2014, according to a NanoMarkets report.
An OLED鈥檚 ability to go on a flexible surface 鈥� plastic or metal foil, for example 鈥� is a major selling point for those seeking improved portability. (OLEDs are already common on cellphones and PDAs throughout Asia.)
Universal Display Corp. in Ewing, N.J., is working with the US Department of Defense on what it calls the 鈥淯niversal Communication Device.鈥�
Janice Mahon, the company鈥檚 vice president of technology commercialization, describes it as an iPhone with a roll-out screen. Rather than lugging numerous maps around, soldiers could one day strap a lightweight, rugged display device to their thigh. The idea: Keep miniaturizing the electronics while maximizing the display.
Flexible displays 鈥� LG Display and Sony have prototypes 鈥� will likely be on store shelves in the next five years, although they probably won鈥檛 be widely affordable for a few more years after that, says Ms. Mahon.
But, she says, 鈥渋t used to be a matter of if; now it鈥檚 a matter of when.鈥�
Thin screens, wide market
The 鈥渃ool鈥� factor aside, an often overlooked advantage of plastics-based electronics is the potential ease of fabrication, says Gasman.
Making plastic displays doesn鈥檛 require parts so much as base materials. So, the electronics can be 鈥減rinted鈥� roll-to-roll like a newspaper, rather than assembled piece-by-piece like the much more energy intensive process that鈥檚 used for LCD displays. This feature will likely reduce OLED manufacturing costs considerably in the future, he says.
DuPont, for example, has spent years perfecting a 鈥渘ozzle鈥� printer that could cheaply and efficiently deposit the materials on a variety of surfaces, says William Feehery, global business director of DuPont OLEDs in Santa Monica, Calif.
鈥淲e are currently making plans to commercialize,鈥� he says. 鈥淥ur aim is to make it really widespread.鈥�
And then there鈥檚 light. In the US, lighting accounts for 8 percent of the nation鈥檚 total energy consumption and 22 percent of the electricity used.
The US Department of Energy recently entered a nearly $2 million, two-year contract with Universal Display to develop OLED lighting panels.
They鈥檒l be thin, eventually more efficient than even compact fluorescents (without the mercury, too), and can either be mounted or printed onto many surfaces, says Mahon. One day soon, windows that are transparent by day may emit light by night.
Books that resemble TVs
E-paper is also gradually moving civilization toward a reality of animated surfaces. Amazon鈥檚 Kindle, an electronic book reader, is perhaps the best-known example of this technology. The key advance: It only takes energy to 鈥渢urn the page鈥� 鈥� once the text is set, it stops consuming power. There are about 10 other
e-readers on the market, and two or three more about to be released, says Sriram Peruvemba, vice president of marketing for E-Ink in Cambridge, Mass., an electronic paper display company.
Although most current e-readers are rigid devices, they鈥檙e moving to flexible surfaces, says Mr. Peruvemba.
Last May, Polymer Vision released the Readius, 鈥渢he first pocket eReader,鈥� which has a foldable screen and the ability to check e-mail. Both Epson and LG Display have large page-size e-paper prototypes with color. (Black and white is the current standard.)
The goal, says Peruvemba, is to put e-ink on every 鈥渟mart surface鈥� and get away from the constraints of 鈥渄ead paper.鈥� One day, subscribers will have one device that updates daily with the most recent edition of their chosen news outlets, Peruvemba imagines.
In that vein, Esquire鈥檚 October issue will have an e-paper cover that blinks to commemorate its 75th anniversary.
鈥淚鈥檝e been looking for ways to more fully use the potential of the print medium,鈥� says David Granger, Esquire鈥檚 editor-in-chief, in an e-mail message. 鈥淭he print medium is so compelling that I and we should all be able to do more with it.鈥�
The technology may also lead to a more tree-friendly world. By Peruvemba鈥檚 estimate, 95 million trees are cut yearly for books. In the US, 12 billion magazines are printed yearly 鈥� and 70 percent of newsstand copies are never sold. Delivering magazines electronically could save the 35 million trees that go into magazines yearly, according to Co-op America, an environmentally minded non-profit. E-paper can offer forests a reprieve.
Solar panels in clothing?
But one of plastic electronics鈥� truly revolutionary aspects may be somewhat less sexy: to hasten the advent of affordable solar panels. Right now, it takes perhaps 10 years to make back in savings what silicon-based solar panels cost to install, says Alan Heeger, professor of physics at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and a 2000 Nobel Laureate in chemistry.
鈥淭he capital cost of putting in silicon solar cells is just too high,鈥� says Dr. Heeger, who helped start Konarka, a company developing organic solar panels. 鈥淲e need a technology that will bring that cost down.鈥�
Besides being potentially much cheaper to make, plastic panels can bend, allowing them to be embedded in roof tiles and sewn into bags or clothing. One day you may recharge your cellphone from your handbag鈥檚 built-in, plastic solar panel, he says.
