Is Arctic sea ice more resilient than scientists thought? Yes and no.
Recent research on Arctic sea ice revealed surprising news: despite downward trends in sea ice extent since the 1970s, total sea ice volume grew by 41 percent in 2013, suggesting it may be more 鈥渞esilient鈥� than believed.
The researchers said less ice melted near Greenland during 2013鈥檚 unusually cool summer, during which temperatures were comparable to those of the late 1990s, and gains lasted through the fall of 2014, when sea ice volume fell slightly but remained above the five-year average.
鈥淲e now know it can recover by a significant amount if the melting season is cut short,鈥� the study鈥檚 lead author Rachel Tilling, a researcher who studies satellite observations of the Arctic . 鈥淭he sea ice might be a little more resilient than we thought.鈥�
However, Ms. Tilling and her fellow researchers warned in the paper, in the journal Nature Geoscience, that if Arctic temperatures continue to rise as expected, variability as seen in 2013 will not prevent sea ice from diminishing overall. Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, also the data does not mean sea ice is suddenly safe.
鈥淭hese people are not making any claim that we鈥檙e going to have some big recovery [in sea ice],鈥� Dr. Serreze said. 鈥淏ut it鈥檚 going to occur in fits and starts because the sea ice is highly variable 鈥� we鈥檙e going to go up some years, down in others.鈥�
This study focused specifically on five years of data, Tilling qualified.聽In terms of drawing long-term conclusions about the direction in which sea ice will lean, she told the Post, 鈥渋t鈥檚 very difficult to say one way or the other.鈥�
鈥淲e do not want to suggest that this is a recovery in the long term,鈥� Tilling said. 鈥淚f you look at the long-term temperature trend in the Arctic, it鈥檚 upward, and if you look at the long-term volume trend, it鈥檚 downward. If temperatures continue to rise, volume is going to continue to decrease.鈥�
Though conclusions from the study about sea ice resilience may be limited, Tilling wrote in the paper that the study went beyond previous research by measuring the volume of ice, not just the surface area. 鈥淒espite a well-documented decline in summer Arctic sea ice extent by about 40% since the late 1970s, it has been difficult to quantify trends in sea ice volume because detailed thickness observations have been lacking,鈥� she wrote.
鈥淪ea ice is complex 鈥� 聽it doesn鈥檛 just grow in area, it grows in thickness,鈥� Tilling told the Post. 鈥淭o see what鈥檚 really happening, you need to look beneath the surface.鈥�
