Trump has been to China before. Why this visit is different.
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Ned Temko Columnist
| London
One thing, at least, should feel reassuringly familiar to U.S. President Donald Trump as he visits Beijing this week for his second state visit to the People鈥檚 Republic: the lavish choreography served up by Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
鈥淭he biggest display you鈥檝e ever had in the history of China,鈥� Mr. Trump enthusiastically predicted to reporters earlier this year. Harking back to his last Beijing summit 鈥� early in his first term, in 2017 鈥� he savored the memory of having never before 鈥渟een so many soldiers, all the same height.鈥� And, he added, 鈥淚 have a very good relationship with President Xi.鈥�
But beyond the trappings, the political circumstances surrounding the two-day state visit that began Wednesday evening could hardly be more different.
Why We Wrote This
With an unfinished war in Iran 鈥� which is also unpopular at home 鈥� President Donald Trump is in Beijing this week looking for a big political win. But it鈥檚 China that holds many of the cards in this complex relationship.
Mr. Xi鈥檚 economic and political leverage has grown significantly.
And while President Trump still represents the world鈥檚 largest economy, he arrives in Beijing seeking an exit ramp from an Iran war that has upended international energy markets, strained ties with U.S. allies, and proved deeply unpopular at home.
In 2017, Mr. Trump used his first trip to Beijing to convey a determination to take action on a range of U.S.-China trade issues. He took issue with China鈥檚 state subsidies, its constraints on market access, and the theft of American companies鈥� intellectual property.
In the months that followed, President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on a range of Chinese exports. He restricted Chinese tech companies鈥� operations in the United States. And in 2020, he sealed a trade deal that included a pledge by China to purchase some $200 billion in U.S. agricultural, energy, and industrial products.
U.S. tariffs did lead to a reduction of direct imports from China. But many of those products were simply redirected through third countries en route to the U.S. market. Large-scale government funding from Beijing helped drive major advances in China鈥檚 high-tech manufacturing. Its Belt and Road program of international investment also tied developing countries to Chinese infrastructure projects.
The economic tremors from the COVID-19 pandemic also brought home to America and other advanced economies their supply chain dependence on China.
Add to that an accelerating drive to beef up its military, and China proved itself to be a different kind of rival from what Mr. Trump dealt with in his first term. It was, in the words of Mr. Trump鈥檚 National Defense Strategy, 鈥渢he most powerful state relative to us since the 19th century.鈥�
Upon regaining the presidency, Mr. Trump made no secret of his determination to act even more assertively toward Beijing. But China has presented a tougher challenge to the Trump administration this time around.
Weeks after returning to office, President Trump placed an additional 20% tariff on China. Then, as part of his 鈥淟iberation Day鈥� levies on countries worldwide, he tacked on a further tariff of 34%.
But while most other countries targeted by these new tariffs scurried to engage with Washington in hopes of heading them off, China struck back.
Within days, Beijing responded by limiting its export of rare earth materials. These are critical components for a wide range of high-tech manufacturing, and nearly all of them are produced in China.
The result was an all-out trade war, peaking with U.S. tariffs of 145% on Chinese products.
But last October, after China announced plans to tighten its restrictions on rare earth exports further, Mr. Trump met Mr. Xi on the sidelines of an Asian economic conference, and they agreed to a聽one-year truce. It brought U.S. tariffs down somewhat, put the rare earth constraints on hold, and聽paved the way for this week鈥檚 summit. At a minimum, both leaders will want to sustain the truce through talks in Beijing.
President Trump will want more: a further announcement of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, perhaps, or new investment or production agreements involving a group of American business leaders traveling with him.
Among them is Elon Musk, whose company Tesla has been overtaken by China鈥檚 BYD as the world鈥檚 leading electric car manufacturer.聽
Mr. Xi, in addition to welcoming a further cut in tariffs, has reasons of his own to hope President Trump can bring an end to the Iran war. While China has been cushioned from most of the economic impact because of a large oil stockpile and expanding reliance on wind and solar energy, it is also a major importer of Iranian oil.
But China鈥檚 ability to push back against Mr. Trump鈥檚 tariff pressures has underscored how the balance between the world鈥檚 two largest economies has changed since his first-term trip to Beijing.聽
In a recent Trump administration policy document 鈥� its November 2025 National Security Strategy 鈥� the U.S. and Chinese economies are described as having become 鈥渘ear-peers.鈥�
And that鈥檚 a shift noted not just by Washington. America鈥檚 allies, unsettled by the conflict in the Middle East and the tariffs imposed on them by this U.S. president, have taken notice, too. In the past few months, and with somewhat less fanfare and ceremony than is being laid on for Mr. Trump, Mr. Xi has welcomed the leaders of Finland,聽Britain, Germany, and other Western countries to Beijing.
So it鈥檚 not just the glitter and glamour. What will matter for President Trump on this visit are the political outcomes that he can present when he flies back to Washington.聽
