Are gasoline cars going extinct?
We鈥檝e seen predictions of the听听before; even the death of the听, and, more recently, the death of听. To be clear, the automobile isn鈥檛 going anywhere 鈥� on form and function, it has no rival; and as an instrument and symbol of progress, no single device better combines cutting edge technology with human needs. Rather, the way (and speed) those two inputs conspire to bring about change is the subject of debate.
The world鈥檚 best-selling carmaker, Toyota, believes the automobile as we know it 鈥� gasoline- and diesel-engine powered 鈥� will be largely obsolete by 2050. As such, the company 鈥� already the听听鈥� is embracing the future and听on a large-scale greening strategy.
By the end of the decade, Toyota plans to reduce carbon emissions from new vehicles by more than 22 percent compared to its 2010 average. By 2050, it hopes to cut emissions by as much as 90 percent. Toward that aim, Toyota expects to sell 1.5 million hybrid vehicles annually across the globe by year鈥檚 end 2020 鈥� or annual growth of about 3 percent. The company will abandon plug-in electric vehicles and instead pursue hydrogen fuel-cell technology. By 2020, Toyota plans to sell 30,000 fuel-cell vehicles per year. Its new Mirai, launched in December 2014, has听听roughly 350 units.
While perhaps not as public 鈥� or as optimistic 鈥� other companies are positioning themselves for electric-heavy markets in the not too distant future.
Nissan looks to continue its success with battery-electric vehicles as it听听to increase sales to 10 percent of its global total around 2020. Battery-electric sales were 82,602, or just shy of 1 percent in 2014, but a new battery, which should double the range of its popular Leaf model, has the company thinking an electric turning point is on the horizon.
General Motors is also expected to improve the range of its electric fleet before the end of 2016 with the modestly priced Chevrolet Bolt. Moreover, the American automaker has听听with Korean electronics firm LG Corp to expedite and enhance the development of electric motors and battery cells across its brands. By late 2021, GM expects the partnership to听听reduced energy intensity and industry leading battery cell costs of $100 per kilowatt-hour.
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In the wake of its emissions scandal, Volkswagen听听to cut investment spending by $1 billion as it refocuses its brand on high-range, plug-in hybrids and high-volume electric vehicles. Volvo is听听a similar shift away from diesel.
For luxury buyers, BMW appears ready to continue its loose, but ambitious plan of electrification. By 2020, the automaker听听to sell 100,000 electric vehicles per year, and, within the next decade or so,听听its entire fleet to electric drivetrains (not necessarily full electric).
For its part, Honda will听听its 鈥楪reen Path鈥� 鈥� a more holistic approach to sustainable production and products.
These widespread movements suggest the alternative vehicle market will be quite competitive in the near future, but companies will be vying for a share of a pie they wish was bigger. The fact is, consumers have been slow to come around to hybrids, EVs, etc, and CAFE standards and tax incentives have failed to manufacture the desired growth.
U.S. auto sales have听听since the Great Recession, but, adjusted for population, Americans are听听fewer cars these days 鈥� and the cars they鈥檙e buying aren鈥檛 electric, or even particularly efficient. After four years of steady year-on-year growth, sales of plug-in electrics in 2015 have听听to match or exceed last year鈥檚 numbers (European sales听听though). Traditional, gasoline powered cars 鈥� midsize, small, and luxury 鈥� have also seen sales decline since 2014. Strong auto sales in 2015 have instead been听听by significant growth in light-duty truck sales, as well as SUV and cross-over sales.
Low gas prices are the primary culprit for EV鈥檚 short-term dip, but insufficient infrastructure, inadequate consumer perception, and simple inconvenience are the greatest inhibitors of the impending boom. As those are sorted 鈥� and they will be 鈥� gasoline will enjoy what may be its last hurrah.
Source:听听
Original article:听
