North Korea threat is part of the geopolitical game
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may be colorful, but he isn鈥檛 crazy.
There is logic behind the intensified war rhetoric, and while it may be convenient for the American public to believe that they are about to be attacked unprovoked by the unhinged dictator of an eerily isolated country, the truth of the matter is that the US and its allies have been doing some offensive听听that has Pyongyang very much on edge.听听
North Korea on Tuesday threatened to attack the US and South Korea with 鈥渓ighter and smaller nukes鈥�. This threat has prompted South Korea to threaten to strike North Korea鈥檚 military command if 鈥減rovoked鈥� and the UN to move closer to slapping new sanctions on Pyongyang鈥檚 banking sector and diplomats.
The sanctions听听was introduced by the US and China and specifically targets North Korean bankers and overseas cash mules. It also targets diplomats and seeks to lend added strength to air and sea cargo inspections going in and out of North Korea.听
While mainstream media outlets are wont to describe North Korea鈥檚 rhetoric as increasingly bold, the threats and recent tests of long-range rockets and nuclear weapons are not the result of bravado, rather of fear.听(Related Article:听)
The US and its East Asia allies (namely South Korea and Japan) have been preparing for an offensive on North Korea ever since the death of Kim Jong-il. They see a window of opportunity in the instability of the fragile succession.听
Pyongyang has no choice now but to rattle its sabers--and rattling them at traditionally quiet South Korea is the most effective strategy. This is where North Korea can do the greatest damage, and if it feels that a US offensive is imminent, South Korea will come under attack. At the same time, an attack on South Korea will be the final justification for an all-out US-led offensive on North Korea.
Right now, Pyongyang is hedging its bets on whether the US is willing to sacrifice its ally to this conflict.
Is North Korea confident enough in its nuclear capabilities to act as a deterrent to a US-led regime change effort? The nuclear tests are meant to demonstrate that confidence, but they also demonstrate fear.听
The North Korea saga has been a long one, and threats have waxed and waned, always with various talking heads tossing about the idea of a major regional war. What鈥檚 different this time is that the US has clearly gone on the offensive and pushed Pyongyang into a dangerous corner. But there鈥檚 another potential geopolitical twist to this saga 鈥�
Sending NBA hero Denis Rodman to Pyongyang to entertain Kim Jong-un鈥攁 die-hard basketball fan鈥攚as said to be a goodwill gesture from Washington. Clearly, Washington鈥檚 policy decisions are nearly as colorful as Pyongyang鈥檚.
Denis Rodman, oddly enough, is a tool (in the instrumental sense of the word). This is where it gets interesting. The US can take its preparations for an offensive against North Korea to a certain point. This point must be impeccably balanced with the aim of upping the ante in negotiations with Pyongyang. Once this is achieved, Washington鈥檚 new 鈥減ivot鈥� towards Asia plans can enter another more delicate phase鈥攁 phase that recognizes the geopolitical importance of North Korea as an ally against China.听(Related Article:听)
Certainly, this must be what the most cynically astute minds in Washington are thinking. At the same time that the US and South Korea undertake carefully designed war games that simulate an offensive on North Korea, Washington sends in Denis Rodman in a push and pull effort.
China has to play along for now because it understands that a nuclear weaponized North Korea could be a formidable blackmailer. North Korea could capitalize on this new geopolitics, or it could choose to attack South Korea and start off a major war. The ball, it would seem, is in Denis Rodman鈥檚 court.听听
