海角大神

The Electric Highway

The New York Times听reporter John Broder recently published his听听of an East Coast road trip he took with the Tesla Model S electric vehicle (EV). It marked an important development: Tesla has opened two new public 鈥溾�� stations some 200 miles apart in Delaware and Connecticut that can fully replenish the Model S battery in an hour and potentially provide consumers the ability to drive the well-traveled Interstate 95 corridor at near-zero carbon emissions. Unfortunately, Broder鈥檚 test results came up short, showing the limitations of existing EV technology, the need for more innovation, and the division of opinions on how the United States should decarbonize transportation.听(Read More:听)

The set-up was simple: Broder was to travel from Washington D.C. to Milford, Connecticut in the souped-up Model S. But听听to Broder, he faced a host of inconveniences as the Model S fell short of its projected 300 mile range, resulting in the car losing charge mid-drive and the need to re-route to find additional charging stations. Since then, he and Tesla CEO Elon Musk have traded accusatory statements, (,听,听,), with even the听New York Times听Public Editor chiming in with an听.

The back and forth ignited a mini-Internet firestorm.听The Atlantic Wire, for example, heavily听听Musk鈥檚 rebuttal while Chelsea Sexton at听Wired听听Tesla by characterizing EVs as being different from gas cars and thus deserving of different expectations. 鈥淭he day-to-day experience EVs offer is so much better than gas cars for 95% of driving. Long-distance road trips are among the last 5% of usage scenarios,鈥� Sexton writes, before concluding that 鈥渋t鈥檚 ridiculous to expect EVs to deliver the same experience as the incumbent product.鈥�

This final point really gets to the heart of the debate. Ultimately, the Tesla vs. Broder spat is a proxy for the debate on how to best decarbonize the transportation sector.听

Consumer Expectations

On one hand, there are those like Sexton (and听听at听Grist) that believe decarbonizing transportation requires fundamental changes in consumer behavior. The most often used comparison is the shift from land-line phones to mobile handsets. Mobile phones didn鈥檛 become a dominant technology by mimicking the performance of land-lines 鈥� they offered many new productivity features and robust social accessibility that made it easy and beneficial to rapidly change behavior, such as dealing with charging mobile batteries and being connected all day, even at a higher cost. EVs are like mobile phones because they require consumers to think differently about refueling, driving capabilities and route planning compared to what they鈥檙e used to. Some behavior change 鈥� more so than what Broder exhibited 鈥� must be expected.

David Roberts takes this a step further and assumes that consumers also need to reframe their expectation of the transportation system as a whole, from sprawl, highways, and long commutes to urban centers, public transportation, and short trips. In this sense, decarbonizing transportation requires consumers to change how and where to live and travel. In this context, EVs have a small role to play as a zero-carbon option for taking short trips and commuting to work, but they doesn鈥檛 necessarily need to meet many, if any, existing expectations of gasoline-based vehicles because the whole system has to change.

From both of these perspectives, EVs are an entirely new technology to be used much differently than the cars of today.

Cost and Performance

On the other hand, there are those like former Executive Director of the Sierra Club听听and former Vice Chairman of GM听听that believe decarbonizing transportation requires EVs meeting most, if not all, consumer cost and performance expectations. This parallels the thinking of many EV companies, which aim to (eventually) offer vehicles at comparable prices as gasoline equivalents with similar performance. In fact, the Tesla Model S brochure states, 鈥淲hether it鈥檚 running quick errands with the kids or a weekend getaway to the mountains, enjoy worry-free driving every day.鈥澨�(Read More:听)

In other words, EVs have a big role to play in decarbonizing transportation and they can assume that role by becoming a drop-in replacement for gasoline cars. Changes to the transportation system are necessary in that EV charging infrastructure is needed to eliminate range anxiety, but fundamentally changing consumer behavior to live differently 鈥� as Roberts believes 鈥� isn鈥檛 necessary. In this sense, EVs are an entirely new technology that should be used in exactly the same ways as the cars of today.

The one core message to take from the Broder-Tesla kerfuffle is that both are correct, but with a caveat: making EVs cost and perform like gas cars is a real barrier to EVs playing听any role,听big or small, in decarbonizing transportation.

Transforming the Transportation System Philosophy

There is very real consumer anxiety in addition to range issues, like driving EVs under normal weather conditions (e.g. winter in the Northeast states, hot summer days, etc.) as well as the classic chicken-and-egg problem of the need for building vehicle charging infrastructure. Tie these performance barriers to the higher sticker price of EVs compared to gas cars and it鈥檚 no surprise EV sales growth is slow. No amount of additional luxury benefits or system change 鈥� such as the impressive information and display technologies highlighted by Broder 鈥� is enough to overcome their real limitations. Only significant technological innovation in batteries and charging products can eliminate them.

The same can be said for transformative system and consumer behavior change. Without a doubt, some consumer change is inherently necessary (as with any new technology), such as getting used to charging vehicles at home compared to driving to the local gas station (though it wouldn鈥檛 hurt if gas stations transitioned to charging stations). But that level of behavior change is easier to come by rapidly with better and cheaper EV technology. And Roberts鈥檚 belief that the transportation system needs to change is absolutely correct, but still requires innovation. Without better technologies, it won鈥檛 be feasible in any timescale relevant to solving climate change to create a more efficient, affordable electrified transportation system that includes EVs, buses, trains, and any host of people-movers that don鈥檛 emit carbon.

As听Boing Boing听Science Editor Maggie Koerth-Baker听听in the听New York Times Magazine, 鈥淵ou can change the technology. You can change the infrastructure and culture. And sometimes, you have to change both, easing people into accepting a new tool by making it look and feel like the old one you want to replace.鈥� In the case of decarbonizing transportation, new, cheaper technology, behavior change, and system change are needed, but the better and cheaper technology must come first to make the rest possible.

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