Are oil super majors falling behind the competition?
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The oil super majors haven鈥檛 done anything terribly impressive in the past five years鈥攁 period that has seen the juniors shine in places like Iraqi Kurdistan, and even in Texas.
This is what happened in the late 1990s to create the super majors we have today:
鈥⒙犅犅 BP Plc (NYSE: BP)took over Amoco and Arco
鈥⒙犅犅 Exxon (NYSE: XOM)acquired Mobil
鈥⒙犅犅 Total SA acquired Fina and Elf
鈥⒙犅犅 Conoco (NYSE: COP)and Phillips merged
鈥⒙犅犅 Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and Texaco merged
That worked then, but it may not be working now. The performance of these giants hasn鈥檛 been that impressive of late. There have been production gains, but they haven鈥檛 been significant and since the massive wave of mergers, these companies haven鈥檛 really grown in any noticeable way. More importantly, most of the bottom line improvement has been because of gas, not oil.
Today, the most significant work is being done by the juniors in Africa, the Middle East and North America even offshore where it鈥檚 more expensive.聽
Some of the more notable ambitious juniors include:聽(Related Article:聽)
鈥⒙犅犅 Canadian-based Africa Oil 鈥 operating in Somalia (Puntland) and Kenya
鈥⒙犅犅 Tullow with its big finds in Kenya (and Africa Oil鈥檚 partner there)
鈥⒙犅犅 Turkey鈥檚 Genel Energy 鈥 the key operator in Iraqi Kurdistan and the first explorer Somaliland
鈥⒙犅犅 UK-listed Heritage Oil 鈥 pushing ambitiously into the majors鈥 game in Nigeria
鈥⒙犅犅 Canada鈥檚听聽鈥 operating in Sudan and Turkey
These are the new exploration champions, and while the smaller juniors鈥 major goal is to be bought out by a major, the larger juniors may go it alone and they鈥檝e been very successful so far.
In Iraqi Kurdistan, it was the juniors who got there first; the majors followed suit once they saw the potential based on junior exploration and development.
Here are the聽聽performing juniors for 2012 listed on the TSX Venture Exchange:
1.聽聽聽聽Emperor Oil (TSXV:);聽current price: $0.41;聽 year-to-date gain: 561.54 percent
2.聽聽聽聽Africa Oil (TSXV:);聽current price: $6.75;聽 year-to-date gain: 323.42 percent
3.听听听听PetroAmerica Oil (TSXV:);聽current price: $0.35; year-to-date gain: 238.10 percent
4.聽聽聽聽Wellstar Energy (TSXV:);聽current price: $0.15; year-to-date gain: 211.11 percent
5.聽聽聽聽Primeline Energy Holdings (TSXV:);聽current price: $0.57; year-to-date gain: 171.43 percent
6.聽聽聽聽Kingsland Energy (TSXV:);聽current price: $0.54; year-to-date gain: 170.00 percent
7.听听听听Petromin Resources (TSXV:);聽current price: $0.10; year-to-date gain: 150.00 percent
8.聽聽聽聽Eaglewood Energy (TSXV:);聽current price: $0.43; year-to-date gain: 145.71 percent
9.聽聽聽聽Bayshore Petroleum (TSXV:);聽current price: $0.33; year-to-date: 113.33 percent
10.聽聽Contact Exploration (TSXV:);聽current price: $0.33; year-to-date: 113.33 percent
Right now, the only clear benefit of the super majors is their technology development capabilities.
So what is a super major to do? They are going to have to engage in a solid fitness regime, shed some pounds and tone some muscles. They might have to get smaller to get bigger if they wish to avoid being rendered irrelevant by the growing ranks of juniors with solid management teams, an eye for exploration potential and a new no-risk-is-too-scary attitude.
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