Where are the hurricanes?
It鈥檚 going to be a bad year for hurricanes along the coasts of the United States. That鈥檚 what forecasters, including Colorado State University meteorologists William Gray and Phil Klotzbach, when they predicted we鈥檇 see 12 named storms this hurricane season.
The tally so far? Zero.
An average Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, produces 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
But this year, more than two months into the season, no storms or hurricanes have yet formed.
We can , scientists say.
In , 鈥淣OAA is calling for an increased probability of a below-average season,鈥� said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center. 鈥淭his is due primarily to the formation of El-Ni帽o.鈥�
El-Ni帽o is an abnormal warming of Pacific Ocean currents that occurs every three to five years, often bringing with it dramatic global weather changes, like heavy, flood-inducing rainfall (and intense heat, as it did in the US in 2006, the in the United States).
It also tends to dampen hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Here鈥檚 how: In El-Ni帽o years, the warming Pacific causes the jet stream, a narrow channel of strong horizontal winds, to shift southward. As the jet stream winds blow over the Atlantic Basin (which include the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico), it creates wind shear, a sharp shift in wind patterns. That change in wind patterns upsets hurricane development, leading to fewer storms.
"[El-Ni帽o] helps to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorms that would normally lead to tropical storms,鈥� said Mr. Feltgen in an e-mail.
Nonetheless, he urges caution. 鈥淥ur message is, it only takes one storm to make it a bad year for you, and it is the one storm you need to prepare for.鈥�
狈翱础础鈥檚 for the 2009 season is:
鈥� seven to 11 named storms.
鈥� three to six hurricanes.
鈥� one to two major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).
As you might guess, the record of accuracy varies, .
