Gavin Schmidt: The problem with climate models? People.
Gavin Schmidt says there鈥檚 nothing really wrong with climate models 鈥� in fact, 鈥渢hey鈥檝e done a pretty good job of predicting what has happened.鈥� One reason they aren鈥檛 more precise, he says, is people.
Dr. Schmidt is the head of NASA鈥檚 Goddard Institute for Space Studies, and one of the country鈥檚 top climate scientists. He acknowledges most climate models fall short of precise predictions.
鈥淒o we have enough information to know that sea level is rising? Yes. Do we have enough information to tell people whether to build a 1-meter wall or a 2-meter wall? The answer is no.鈥�
The real wild card in climate forecasting is whether people will modify their behavior, and change their worlds in response to a warming planet. 听
鈥淭he physics part is actually pretty good,鈥� Dr. Schmidt says. 鈥淏ut the uncertainty in what human society will do is real. It鈥檚 a really unclear thing how society and technology and societal organization will respond to what鈥檚 happening.鈥�
Scientists have customarily been wary of entering the public debate about climate change, fretful of the political crosscurrents. But Dr. Schmidt wades into the chaos. He started RealClimate.org, a much-followed blog of science and argument. He has debated fact-shy YouTubers and also fellow scientists.听 听
It is discouraging that the warnings of science have not spurred more action, he admits. 听 听
鈥淚f we鈥檇 started to take the climate problem seriously 20 years ago, it would have been a much easier lift,鈥� he says. 鈥淎nd we wouldn鈥檛 be in the situation that we are in now. But instead of bemoaning the fact, we should be starting to do a lot more now.鈥�
Is he optimistic or pessimistic that humankind will act fast enough to avoid catastrophe?
鈥淚t depends,鈥� he says, 鈥渙n the day.鈥�
Read about Dr. Schmidt's听work on an ambitious effort to build a new climate model that could one day听one day听put climate prediction in the palm of your hand.听
