Could robust El Ni帽o bring relief to drought-parched California?
The powerful El Ni帽o approaching California could bring some of the most drastic weather changes in 65 years. Forecasters say it is the second strongest El Ni帽o on record for this time of year and have unofficially named it after the martial artist Bruce Lee.
El Ni帽o occurs when winds shift and warm the Pacific Ocean鈥檚 water, leading to weather changes worldwide but mostly affecting the United States in winter.聽聽
With a 50 percent chance of El Ni帽o leading to a wet season, California's state climatologist Michael Anderson says it鈥檚 too soon to predict if it could save the state from its four-year drought that harrowed farm fields, turned lawns brown and dried up streams and wells.
California鈥檚 record-low rainfall has also spurred water usage constraints and contributed to the spread of wildfires.
"[El Ni帽o] definitely would increase the likelihood of heavy rains in the winter there, which would certainly improve their situation tremendously," said Donald Keeney, senior agricultural meteorologist with Maryland-based MDA Weather Services.
But experts warn that California and other drought-struck areas shouldn鈥檛 get their hopes up. The state needs 1-1/2 times the amount of regular rainfall to overcome the drought, and chances of that happening are slim.
"A big聽El聽Ni帽o聽guarantees nothing," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. "At this point there's no cause for rejoicing that聽El聽Ni帽o聽is here to save the day."聽
Even if it brings heavy rainfall, El Ni帽o could lead to some damaging outcomes.聽
California鈥檚 firefighters have taken on 1,500 wildfires more than a normal year, says Daniel Berlant of the state's Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Fires can harden the ground and increase the likelihood of flooding in the event of heavy rains or they could burn away vegetation that keeps soil in tact and lead to mudslides.聽
But for the most part, economic studies show that聽El聽Ni帽o usually benefits the United States by reducing droughts and Atlantic hurricanes. With the exception of California mudslides, the US economy benefited by nearly $22 billion after an El聽Ni帽o in 1997-98, according to one study.聽
This El Ni帽o is expected to be on par with that one, along with two others in 1982-83 and 1972-73, said Mr. Halpert, as an important portion of the Pacific has been considerably warm in the last three months.
This report includes material from Reuters and the Associated Press.
