Migrant flows and self-governance
Greece has seen a threefold increase in the number of migrants reaching its shores illegally this year. In Italy, illegal arrivals have almost doubled. Across the southern United States, nearly 9,000 people have been slipping through gaps in the border daily in recent weeks. These mass flows of humanity are adding new urgency to the international community鈥檚 focus on what compels people to risk perilous journeys in search of uncertain futures.
鈥淲e must recognize that solutions to irregular migration cannot solely rely on preventing departures, but also on ensuring that we are effectively addressing the various drivers of migration in countries of origin, transit and, oftentimes, in countries of initial destination,鈥� P盲r Liljert, director of the International Organization for Migration鈥檚 office to the United Nations, told the U.N. Security Council yesterday.
Two countries of migrant origin in Central America are now showing that stemming the flight of their citizens starts with ending corruption and impunity. In Guatemala, President-elect Bernardo Ar茅valo is butting heads with public prosecutors, judges, and lawyers bent on annulling his upset ballot victory in August. In neighboring Honduras, President Xiomara Castro is trying to transform a political establishment long implicated by graft, including ties with drug traffickers.
A World Bank study published this month shows the correlation between corruption and migration. Using a model based on four measures of corruption, the study found that every one-unit increase in a country鈥檚 overall corruption level resulted in an 11% increase in migrant outflow, 鈥渨hile the same increase in the destination country is associated with a 10% decline in in-migration.鈥�
Those findings are confirmed by a deep desire among ordinary people in both Guatemala and Honduras for honest governance and the security and economic opportunities that flow from it. In the latest AmericasBarometer survey in Guatemala, conducted just before the August election, 76% of citizens surveyed said that more than half of the country鈥檚 politicians engage in corrupt activities. Mr. Ar茅valo promised a big broom. His victory marked a popular rejection of fear and resignation. 鈥淭he first job was to defeat defeatism,鈥� Sandra Mor谩n, a once-exiled former member of Congress who voted for Mr. Ar茅valo, told The Intercept earlier this month.
That mental shift from within may be more powerful than any offer of help from outside the source countries of migration. 鈥淐orruption is the system,鈥� Claudia Escobar, a former Guatemalan appeals court judge, told the Council on Foreign Relations last week. 鈥淎nd this will only change when the countries decide that they want to implement a different system.鈥�
Both countries are showing that when the fear of corruption breaks, virtuous cycles begin to form. In Guatemala, judges 鈥� a professional class with deep alleged ties to corruption 鈥� have rejected efforts by the attorney general, herself the target of U.S. economic sanctions for 鈥渋nvolvement in significant corruption,鈥� to vacate Mr. Ar茅valo鈥檚 ballot victory. In Honduras, even Ms. Castro鈥檚 opponents in parliament have grudgingly backed legislative reforms meant to counter impunity.
At each step, the public has been watching. 鈥淭hey are saying that we are coming to defend Ar茅valo,鈥� Sandra Calel, an Indigenous activist who joined a protest rally against the attorney general in Guatemala last week, told The Associated Press, 鈥渂ut we are really coming to defend democracy, which is what the people elected. Because we are tired of so much corruption.鈥�
Two points of migrant origin in Central America are charting new routes to the rights of the self-governed 鈥� and perhaps more reasons to stay at home.
