The start of a great decoupling of nations?
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, which led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The end of the Cold War and of a bipolar world led to a great rush of globalization, with most nations drawing closer together.
This week, however, that rush may have turned to a hush. Three big powers hinted at a potential decoupling from other countries.
In Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the Continent must 鈥渞eposition itself鈥� against three rivals, the United States, China, and Russia. 鈥淭he old certainties of the postwar order no longer apply,鈥� she said.
In Beijing, Chinese leader Xi Jinping told other countries in Asia that they should stick together to write a 鈥渘ew glory of Asian civilizations.鈥�
And in Washington, President Donald Trump imposed his toughest sanctions yet on China over its trade practices, all but excluding any U.S. business with the premier Chinese technology firm Huawei. The ban came only days after new tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods.
Of the three moves, the most serious is the attempt in the U.S. to disengage from China. The world鈥檚 two largest economies have become closely intertwined since the 1990s yet remain far apart on how to run their respective countries. The U.S. accuses China of technology theft, unfair subsidies of exports, and an authoritarian rule that turns workers and companies into government tools of national power.
The new tariffs and other restrictions are designed to change Chinese behavior. Yet they might also become permanent if China fails to change. That is very likely given the Communist Party鈥檚 strategic goals for Chinese dominance in certain industries and a historical resentment toward outside pressure.
Last month the U.S. State Department鈥檚 director of policy planning, Kiron Skinner, said the administration was coming up with a new defensive strategy toward China, one similar to the containment strategy for the Soviet Union devised by American diplomat George Kennan in 1947.
鈥淚n China we have an economic competitor; we have an ideological competitor, one that really does seek a kind of global reach that many of us didn鈥檛 expect a couple of decades ago,鈥� said Dr. Skinner.
Today鈥檚 China is in many ways different from the Soviet Union. It works within international bodies, for example, even as it tries to change them to its favor. Still, if the U.S. moves to decouple from the Chinese economy and even tries to isolate it, such a policy would be adopting the core idea of Mr. Kennan鈥檚 approach.
The Soviet Union, he wrote, was based on flawed ideas, such as a state-run economy. Its system would 鈥渆ventually weaken its own total potential.鈥� Russian leaders, he said, were 鈥渄riven by fear or concern for their prestige to do things that are not in their best interests.鈥�
His approach took decades of patient vigilance by the U.S. to succeed. Rather than defeat the Soviet Union, the U.S. in effect followed an old Arab proverb: 鈥淟eave evil and it will leave you.鈥�
Many of China鈥檚 practices are repugnant to its competitors, not just the U.S. But will boxing in China bring different results than engaging it?
Three decades of globalization may have turned a corner in recent days. Of all the big players, the U.S. and China will determine whether the world splits into regional blocs and defensive postures. Their trade war is about more than trade or even the future of each country. It is about ideas that either work for all or collapse on their own fallacies.
