海角大神

A loud roar erupted outside my apartment window. Across the city, jubilant fans poured into the streets to celebrate the victory. It was spring 2002, and I was studying abroad in Salamanca, Spain, a university town west of Madrid.

Soccer powerhouse Real Madrid had just beaten Germany鈥檚 Bayer Leverkusen to win Europe鈥檚 Champions League Cup. Real鈥檚 triumph was secured by a brilliant second-half Zinedine Zidane goal, a miraculous volleying left-footed bullet from the edge of the penalty area.

As an American, my devotion to Real was only as deep as my four months in Spain could engender. But it was easy to get caught up in the revelry.

For decades, Americans have been hearing about soccer鈥檚 imminent arrival as a top-tier spectator sport. But Brazilian star 笔别濒茅 in the early 1980s and Britain鈥檚 David Beckham more recently failed to catapult soccer into the mainstream.

And despite drawing TV ratings in America 50 percent higher than in 2006, this year鈥檚 World Cup won鈥檛 prompt as many Americans to suddenly embrace the game with anything like the passion of my Spanish neighbors in 2002.

But, like it or loathe it, soccer鈥檚 eventual rise may be inevitable.

Consider this: America鈥檚 loudest complaint about soccer is that there鈥檚 not enough scoring. The World Cup鈥檚 first round produced an average of just over two goals a game. The scarcity of goals makes draws common (nearly a third of first-round games ended in tie scores).

Not that the alternative 鈥� the penalty shootout 鈥� is much better. In a penalty shootout, each team selects five players to alternately attempt to kick the ball past the goalie at pointblank range. It is soccer鈥檚 equivalent to deciding the NBA finals with a free-throw shooting contest or settling the Super Bowl by holding a field-goal kicking contest.

At a deeper level, many Americans 鈥� especially conservatives 鈥� resent having soccer foisted upon them. Glenn Beck rants, 鈥淲e don鈥檛 want the Word Cup, we don鈥檛 like the World Cup, we don鈥檛 like soccer, we want nothing to do with it.鈥� The late Jack Kemp even opposed a congressional resolution supporting US efforts to host the 1994 World Cup, stating, 鈥渁 distinction should be made that football is democratic, capitalism, whereas soccer is a European socialist [sport].鈥�

But soccer has plenty to offer Americans of all political stripes. For one, when you take in a soccer match, though goals may be scarce, you鈥檒l be watching 90 minutes of almost nonstop action (not commercials!).

Let鈥檚 compare that with America鈥檚 favorite spectator sport, professional football. According to a Wall Street Journal study, the average amount of time the ball is in play on the field during an NFL games is less than 11 minutes. The remainder of the 174 minutes that make-up a typical broadcast are filled with images of players huddling and milling around, images of coaches and referees and, of course, commercials.

In addition, many soccer analysts believe that a soccer-loving America would, as President Obama might say, kick ass.

Notwithstanding that America has exited the last two World Cups by losing to Ghana, we already have one of the world鈥檚 top teams. (It surprised few experts that America won its first round group this year.)

Now imagine if our top athletes 鈥� instead of playing football, baseball, and basketball 鈥� grew up aspiring to be world-class soccer stars, as kids from most other countries do. We鈥檇 be contenders every World Cup.

For conservative hold-outs, soccer may be the most capitalist game going. In most American sports leagues, failure is rewarded as the worst teams get the best shots at the top draft picks, and most leagues have revenue sharing and salary caps to spread the wealth around.

In contrast, the free market reins in most European soccer leagues. Teams that finish last must move to a lower division the following year, while the best of the lower divisions move up. It鈥檚 the ultimate meritocracy.

In the end, soccer鈥檚 rise may be inevitable. According to Census Bureau projections, by 2050 Hispanic Americans鈥� share of the population will double to 30 percent. Along with millions of other immigrants, Hispanic newcomers will embrace American sports. But they鈥檒l also retain their love of soccer.

As a signal of our demographic shift, three players on the US men鈥檚 soccer team鈥檚 23-man World Cup roster have Hispanic surnames. But 12 of 36 boys in the under-15 US player pool have Hispanic surnames.

Also, while the World Cup is a once-every-four-years experience, increasing numbers of Americans are receiving more than a glimpse of soccer through work and study abroad programs. American expats have more time and incentive to get to know the soccer teams of their adopted home countries.

According to a recent report by Open Doors, a record 262,000 American students studied abroad in 2007 and 2008, a 400 percent increase from two decades earlier. Most of the top study abroad in countries like Britain, Italy, Spain, France, Mexico, and Germany, which go gaga for soccer.

America鈥檚 ambivalence toward soccer probably has less to do with politics or lack of scoring than with our already saturated sports market. But we are a sports-loving nation. And as our exposure to soccer continues, I believe we鈥檒l find room for one more sport to love.

Daniel Allott is senior writer at American 海角大神 and a Washington fellow with the National Review Institute.