海角大神

While two wars in Southwest Asia and a dangerous confrontation with Iran听诲辞尘颈苍补迟别 President Obama鈥檚 foreign- policy worry list, oil-rich Venezuela, much closer to home, is becoming more than a minor irritant.

To date, the Obama administration has dismissed Venezuela鈥檚 President Hugo Ch谩vez as a pesky, leftist loudmouth, whose verbal eruptions against the United States pose no threat. But a new era of 鈥淐ubanization鈥� in Venezuela should warn of a crackdown against Mr. Ch谩vez鈥檚 domestic opponents and a stepped-up drive for socialist revolution across Latin America.

Ch谩vez has been importing 鈥渁dvisers鈥� from Cuba. There are now some 30,000 of them, many of them intelligence, security, and political affairs officers, as well as medical personnel.聽

Ch谩vez鈥檚 recent installation of Cuban Vice President Ramiro Valdes in a key advisory role in Venezuela is seen by Ch谩vez opponents as a sinister move toward greater 鈥淐ubanization鈥� and Castro-style communism. Mr. Valdes is also Cuba鈥檚 communications minister and ranks third in the Cuban hierarchy. His job in Venezuela is supposedly to handle an electricity crisis 鈥� though his qualifications are suspect. 聽

In recent years, Ch谩vez has established alliances with nations that could be counted on to tweak Washington. Russia has engaged in military exercises with Venezuela and signed an agreement to supply up to $2 billion worth of weaponry. China is buying more than 330,000 barrels of oil daily from Venezuela and has signed an investment agreement to develop more. China also has just completed a $400 million communications satellite for Venezuela.聽

Iran has been Venezuela鈥檚 most ingratiating suitor. The two nations聽 have signed dozens of agreements in recent years to boost infrastructure, energy, and manufacturing in the South American country. Ch谩vez has visited Tehran often, pledging cooperation with Iran in opposing 鈥淯S imperialism,鈥� liberating countries from the 鈥渋mperialist yoke,鈥� and furthering 鈥淏olivarian socialist principles鈥� in Latin America. Ch谩vez has consistently endorsed Iran鈥檚 nuclear program.聽

At home, Ch谩vez lauds Fidel Castro as a political blood brother, and communist Cuba as an example for all of Latin America.聽

His governance has become increasingly authoritarian, detailed in a blistering report by the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights. It highlights how Ch谩vez has undermined judicial independence, intimidated or silenced opposition media, hobbled elected opposition figures, and criminalized dissidents and human rights groups.

Last week, a Spanish judge accused Venezuela of colluding with terrorist groups including the Basque ETA rebels and the Colombian FARC.

Once lauded by his people as a reformer, Ch谩vez is now the target of angry street rallies, especially as he has rather blatantly plotted to stay president for life.聽

Cuba depends on Venezuela鈥檚 cheap oil (the US is also a major buyer) and would be disadvantaged if the Ch谩vez regime fell. Havana may be alarmed by the fissures in Ch谩vez鈥檚 support and probably welcomed the opportunity to position Valdes in Caracas to bolster Ch谩vez.聽

Cuba鈥檚 leaders may also have some concerns about their own country鈥檚 political stability. Cuban dissidents say word has been passed up the military command that the ailing Fidel Castro may not outlast this year. His succession is by no means certain. Fidel鈥檚 brother Ra煤l, currently managing the country while his brother is incapacitated, is credited with being a better administrator than Fidel, but lacks Fidel鈥檚 charisma.聽

The Obama administration, beset by major problems at home and challenges abroad, may have thought it could delay confronting lesser problems in Latin America. This may prove to have been an unwise calculation.

Mr. Obama: Don鈥檛 be surprised by that 3 a.m. call.

John Hughes, a former editor of the Monitor, writes a biweekly column.