海角大神

The genre known as alternative history asks 鈥渨hat if?鈥� What if the Spanish Armada had sunk the English fleet? What if the Confederacy had won the American Civil War? If JFK had not been assassinated? If Hitler 丑补诲?听

In the hands of a skilled strategist or storyteller, 鈥渁lt history鈥� is more than just a parlor game. It can show the far-reaching consequences of small events, making us appreciate our own time or lament what might have been. You can find alt history in everything from military analysis to thrillers like Robert Harris鈥檚 1992 novel, 鈥淔atherland,鈥� to science fiction like 鈥淭he Terminator,鈥� 鈥淏ack to the Future,鈥� or the current time-bender, 鈥淟ooper.鈥� Alter one or two events in the past, the formula goes, and the present becomes a very different place.

Washington political reporter Linda Feldmann explores two distinct futures that could branch from the Nov. 6 US presidential election. (You can read them here and here.)聽A second term for President Obama or a first term for former Gov. Mitt Romney would start with unique advantages and face unique challenges. But then things get interesting.

International crises could suddenly rise up 鈥� bad ones, as in the 9/11 terror attacks; good ones, as in the 1989 collapse of communism 鈥� forcing a president to improvise. A president鈥檚 personal style also plays a part. As Gail Russell Chaddock notes in a companion piece (page 29), Jimmy Carter failed to establish rapport with congressional leaders and achieved little domestically, despite a Democrat-controlled House and Senate. On the other hand, inveterate cold warrior Ronald Reagan found himself face to face with a genial reformer in Mikhail Gorbachev, which led to a historic thaw in US-Soviet relations. So count on this: The next four years will look nothing like what we imagine.

Opinion polls indicate the 2012 presidential race could be as close as the 2000 race. An amusing alt-history essay in Newsweek not long ago described what might have happened if 2000 had gone the other way: A falling-out might have occurred between President Al Gore and his mavericky No. 2, Joe Lieberman, resulting in Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton stepping in as vice president. And while we鈥檙e at it, Mr. Gore could have named Bill Clinton as secretary of State. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court vacancy left by Sandra Day O鈥機onnor could have gone to a constitutional scholar and Illinois junior senator named Barack Obama. But for a few hanging chads, then, the 2008 race might have pitted Hillary Clinton and (get ready, what follows is an even bigger leap) running mate Bill Clinton against a resurgent George W. Bush and brother Jeb.

Sure, it鈥檚 parlor game nonsense 鈥� but only because we know what the present looks like. Decisions we make every moment 鈥� big ones like where to invest time or money, small ones like whether to return a phone call 鈥� affect the future. But we never know how. The cold war might have sped to a conclusion anyway in a second Jimmy Carter term. Spanish-ruled England might have reasserted its independence a few years after the Armada landed (perhaps while retaining the best paella recipes). JFK鈥檚 second term might have been mired in Vietnam.

The road ahead is always diverging. Way always leads on to way. It鈥檚 important to ask 鈥渨hat if?鈥� at every fork. And it鈥檚 probably best to time travel with an open heart and wary eye.

John Yemma is editor of the Monitor.