China is a barometer on whether Israel will attack nuclear plants in Iran
One indicator of whether Israel will soon attack Iran鈥檚 nuclear facilities is whether China believes it.
Judging by recent actions, it doesn鈥檛.
China鈥檚 vice premier, Li Keqiang, told Iran鈥檚 visiting oil minister Friday that trade between the two countries is achieving 鈥渇ruitful results.鈥�
Fruitful indeed. China鈥檚 investors and traders are now filling a vacuum in Iran as businesses from many other nations, especially in Europe, pull out to comply with the latest call from the UN Security Council for nations to impose sanctions on Iran. (China voted for the resolution but is largely ignoring it.)
China鈥檚 defiance irks the US to the point that American officials are now openly critical of Beijing. Perhaps the US knows something about Israel鈥檚 intentions toward striking Iran that China doesn鈥檛. A prime opportunity for Israel to strike Iran would be this fall, just before the US elections when politicians are most prone to support Israel despite its actions.
In Israel鈥檚 eyes, the sanctions need to be bringing down the Iranian regime or forcing it to slow or end its nuclear project. China, however, insists that sanctions not hurt the general economy, only the top leaders, a distinction that may be impossible to achieve.
Sanctions have a mixed record in world affairs. In Iran, the latest sanctions have only begun to hit the economy at its most vulnerable spot 鈥� gasoline imports. Similar tough measures haven鈥檛 fazed dictators in Burma and North Korea; they hold power easier through self-isolation.
Proponents of sanctions as a diplomatic tool in lieu of war can point to a few successes. Libya recently wanted out of Western sanctions and made some amends for past sins. Sanctions against white-ruled South Africa in the 1980s greatly helped bring about majority rule.
One case that I know personally is the US-led trade embargo of Vietnam during the 1980s after Vietnam invaded Cambodia. By the mid-1980s, Hanoi鈥檚 communist leaders had lost legitimacy at home for not being able to raise economic standards 鈥� the country faced a famine in 1988. They were asking visiting journalists like myself how to win US approval.
Vietnam did exit Cambodia in 1989, opened up its socialist economy to capitalism, and worked hard with the US to find the remains of missing American soldiers from the war. By the mid-1990s, US and Vietnam began to draw closer. Today, they are even comrades to the point of jointly criticizing China鈥檚 actions.
China stands to temporarily lose its third-largest source of oil imports if Israel does bomb Iran. That prospect would disrupt the Chinese economy, something Beijing鈥檚 leaders can鈥檛 afford. Their coolness toward sanctions on Iran may be the best barometer on what will happen next. Sanctions are a tricky business.
