Government spending will perpetuate fiscal insanity
Gold up a buck. Dow up 61.
Housing still going nowhere鈥AHB index flat for 4 months in a row.
Food imports inflating at a 30% annual rate over the last 3 months. Fuel going up at a 60% rate. The World Bank says food stocks at 鈥渄angerously low鈥� levels鈥�
鈥淢anufacturers squeezed,鈥� by rising metals prices, says a headline.
Retails sales in January below expectations.
What can we say? Mixed signals. Confusing outlook. The underlying economy is in a slump. But the feds are putting out more and more hot money to try to fix it. It鈥檚 a Great Correction, in other words.
So, let鈥檚 step back one more time and take a look at the big picture鈥hen we鈥檒l return to our day by day reckoning tomorrow.
Steven Rattner, writing in The Financial Times, says we鈥檙e headed for a 鈥渇iscal nightmare.鈥�
He puts the unfunded obligations of Social Security and Medicare at $50 trillion. Which is a lot of money. Even in this day and age.
And he notes, as we did, that Obama鈥檚 deficit cutting initiatives are puny and pathetic. In a nutshell, the Democrats don鈥檛 want to cut discretionary spending for infrastructure, education, health and other seemingly laudable goals. The Republicans don鈥檛 want to cut any money destined to maintain the security of the United States 鈥� also a worthy goal, if you put it that way.
Nobody wants to cut Social Security or Medicare entitlements.
That doesn鈥檛 leave much. It is as if the feds were trying to butcher a wicker chair. There鈥檚 no meat on it to cut.
By our reckoning, the feds collect about $2 trillion in taxes. They spend about $3.6 trillion. That is how we get a record budget deficit of more than $1.6 trillion this year.
They spend about $1.80 for every dollar in revenues, the greatest imbalance since WWII.
During wartime we can understand going deep in the hole. 鈥淏uy Bonds,鈥� say the posters. 鈥淪upport our Troops,鈥� say the slogans. Lending money to the feds seems like a good thing to do; the alternative 鈥� defeat 鈥� would be such a drag.
But what is the emergency now? If the feds slow down their spending machine, what calamity will be upon us? What evil is so great that we should put the financial integrity of the nation at risk? Will foreign soldiers fill our bars and brothels? Will we have to surrender Bush and Cheney as war criminals? Will we have to pay reparations and lose Alaska?
Nah? Then what is it?
As near as we can figure, if we cut the deficit now we risk a return to sanity. That is, without the boost from government鈥檚 very stimulative fiscal deficits, the economy would have to operate on a more sensible basis. The feds could spend only what they could afford. People who rely on money from the feds would have to get honest jobs鈥r cut their own spending to bring it in line with their real incomes.
People could not spend money they got from the feds鈥fter the feds borrowed it from someone else. So, there would be less money in the consumer economy, leading to all the big D problems 鈥� deflation, de-leveraging, defaults and depression.
In other words, without the feds鈥� activism, things might do what they ought to do. Debts would be written off, paid down, or restructured. Companies that depend on debt-fueled demand would go out of business. People who couldn鈥檛 make ends meet without some extra twine from the government wouldn鈥檛 be able to get their ends together; they could finally go broke and get on with their lives.
That鈥檚 what a correction is for 鈥� to fix the mistakes of the past鈥otably the mistakes caused by too much easy credit.
Instead, the feds seem determined. They鈥檙e doing the most remarkably imbecilic thing, no matter what we think here at The Daily Reckoning. Rather than let the private economy adjust to new circumstances鈥hey will bankrupt the US government trying to keep the craziness going.
But we are libeling imbeciles, aren鈥檛 we? Stupid people would never think of doing such a thing. It takes a smart person with a lot of education. Because it鈥檚 not that easy to overcome common sense. You need a lot of brainpower to do something that stupid.
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