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Will Taco Bell鈥檚 breakfast program be a success? Well, yes, if the standard it uses is Woody Allen鈥檚 quip that 鈥�80% of success is showing up.鈥�

鈥淲e鈥檙e not in it to be in breakfast; we鈥檙e in to win at breakfast,鈥� Yum Brands Chairman- CEO David Novak told analysts last week. But what does Taco Bell mean by 鈥渨inning鈥�? Not much, apparently. The chain has set the bar low enough to guarantee success. But there鈥檚 a difference between 鈥渟uccess鈥� and 鈥渨inning.鈥� Taco Bell may well succeed, but is it going to be winning anything?

Breakfast represents about 25% of the average McDonald鈥檚 sales and 45% for Hardee鈥檚. What is Yum Brands鈥� target for Taco Bell鈥檚 breakfast? About 7%. Novak told analysts this week that Taco Bell stores could see about $100,000 in incremental business as a result of breakfast. There鈥檚 nothing wrong with incremental business, to be sure. But given that the average Taco Bell does annual sales of about $1.4 million, $100,000 represents about 7%. That鈥檚 a terrific gain for Taco Bell operators in a slow-growth market, but it hardly adds up to 鈥渨inning.鈥� Not when the average McDonald鈥檚 is taking in $650,000 from morning business.

Said Yum CFO Pat Grismer: 鈥淲ith respect to our expectations around breakfast and what we鈥檙e seeing today, we鈥檝e been targeting mid to high single-digit mix for breakfast that鈥檚 generally what we saw in the test.鈥�

Mid-to-high-single digit? Yes, about 7%, which is what it says it needs 鈥渋n order to make the economics work for us.鈥� But even Carl鈥檚 Jr., which didn鈥檛 even push hard on breakfast until it adopted sibling Hardee鈥檚 Made From Scratch Biscuits platform a few years ago, can muster better than double Taco Bell鈥檚 breakfast sales target.

Wendy鈥檚 decided to suspend its efforts to launch a breakfast program because it couldn鈥檛 make mornings work profitably and its target was $140,000 to $150,000 in breakfast sales per store. Taco Bell ought to be able hit $100,000, or $274 a day, from breakfast.

When Subway added a breakfast menu in 2010, it didn鈥檛 make any grandstanding claims about 鈥渨inning.鈥� It just built itself a solid breakfast business鈥斅爐o be about 9% of sales鈥攁nd everyone else in the category survived just fine.

A few questions remain unasked. One is how well Taco Bell鈥檚 breakfast will do鈥攐nce the initial novelty of Waffle Tacos wears off鈥攁gainst chains such as Jack in the Box (very strong in California, where Taco Bell is weighted) that make breakfast available all day?

Another question is why nutrition watchdogs aren鈥檛 scrutinizing Taco Bell as closely as they do the burger chains. Taco Bell鈥檚 A.M. Crunchwrap with sausage鈥檚 710 calories are about equal to McDonald鈥檚 Bacon Clubhouse burger. And where are Taco Bell鈥檚 鈥渉ealthy foods,鈥� the fruit slices and oatmeal and egg-white sandwiches that other QSRs have been prodded into menuing?

Taco Bell is likely to get the 7% bump it expects. Maybe even 8% so management can crow that breakfast 鈥渉as exceeded our expectations.鈥� Breakfast will be a success. It will get a good bit of 鈥渂uzz鈥� on social media. But a winner? Of what? Will it become the No. 1 QSR breakfast choice? Not a chance. Another of Woody Allen鈥檚 great lines is, 鈥淐onfidence is what you have before you understand the problem.鈥�