海角大神

I am weary of mystery meat. 聽The latest serving was dished out yesterday by House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI), who released a fiscal plan that airily promises both trillions of dollars in tax cuts and a nearly balanced budget within a decade, but never says how he鈥檇 get there.

Ryan isn鈥檛 saying that his budget implies cuts of聽$4.6 trillion in popular tax deductions, credits, and exclusions over 10 years, according to new estimates by the Tax Policy Center.聽And that ignores the聽$5.4 trillion in revenue lost from permanently extending the 2001/2003 tax cuts.聽聽

Ryan proposes big, specific spending reductions such as cutting Medicaid in half and slashing other federal spending (except for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid) by nearly 75 percent from current levels by 2050. But his budget still can鈥檛 add up without eliminating or sharply scaling back those popular tax preferences. Which ones, it seems, remain a state secret. 聽

Ryan rolled out a 2013 budget that promises to replace the current individual rate structure with just two rates鈥� 10 percent and 25 percent. He鈥檇 repeal the Alternative Minimum Tax and abolish the tax increases included in the 2010 health law. For business, he鈥檇 lower the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 25 percent and shift to a territorial tax system, where multinationals would owe no U.S. tax on foreign earnings.

All of this would reduce tax revenues by trillions of dollars over 10 years.聽The Tax Policy Center聽estimates that a similar corporate rate cut, AMT repeal, and a two-rate individual system聽would reduce revenues by about $4.5 trillion through 2022, even after聽accounting for the $5.4聽trillion cost of extending the 2001/2003 tax cuts. In 2022 alone, a Ryan-like plan would reduce revenues by about聽$600 billion.

To put it another way, TPC figures such a tax package聽would generate聽revenues of about 15.8 percent of Gross Domestic Product in 2022. His budget aims to collect about聽18.7 percent. That means he鈥檇 have to find聽about $700 billion in new revenues by cutting聽tax preferences.聽聽聽

Keep in mind that TPC did not model聽the actual Ryan plan, since it is not specific聽enough to estimate. Instead, we聽looked at a plan with聽the聽elements of his proposal.聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽聽

But the rough numbers are stark. And Ryan, who knows better, studiously avoids naming names when it comes to eliminating tax preferences. Oh, his budget includes a convincing and articulate explanation about what鈥檚 wrong with a tax system with high rates and a narrow base. He just doesn鈥檛 say what he鈥檇 do about it.

There is a disquieting echo here of President Obama, who so recently did such a great job explaining what鈥檚 wrong with our corporate tax system. The president happily proposed a politically popular cut in corporate rates to 28 percent, but identified offsetting tax increases that would cover only a fraction of the cost.

All of the major GOP presidential candidates have played the same black box game鈥攑romising huge rate cuts without ever saying how they鈥檇 pay for them.

Ryan asserts there is 鈥渁n emerging bipartisan consensus for tax reform that lowers rates, broadens the tax base, and promotes growth and job creation.鈥� Actually, he鈥檚 wrong. There is an emerging bipartisan consensus to embrace lower rates without ever saying how to pay for them.