海角大神

Remember President Obama鈥檚 2012 budget鈥攖he fiscal framework he released in February. You鈥檇 be forgiven if you鈥檝e forgotten. After all, Washington can鈥檛 seem to stop squabbling over what to do about the budget for this fiscal year, now almost half over. Still, once Congress finally crawls out of the muck of 2011, Obama鈥檚 budget will be the focus of much of the upcoming debate over taxes and spending.

The Tax Policy Center has just the tax provisions of the Obama budget. We have found, not surprisingly, that he鈥檚 proposing significant tax increases for high-earners and little or no change for the other 95 percent of taxpayers.

Keep in mind that analyzing Obama鈥檚 proposal is maddeningly complicated by the 鈥渃ompared to what鈥� problem. There are three floating around.

There is 鈥渃urrent law鈥� that assumes all the 2001-2003 tax cuts and the Alternative Minimum Tax patch expire as scheduled at the end of 2012. In effect, this compares Obama鈥檚 tax changes to the law at the end of the Clinton Administration.

Then, there is 鈥渃urrent policy鈥� that assumes this year鈥檚 tax law will continue indefinitely (thus everyone pays relatively low tax rates, about 30 million middle-class households are protected from the AMT, and estates of less than $5 million ($10 million for couples) are exempt from tax.

Finally, the White House uses a third baseline that assumes, among other things, that the Bush-era tax cuts are extended for most households, but not for the highest-earners. Just to make matters even more difficult, the baseline Obama uses in his 2012 budget is not the same one he has used for the past two years.

Since most of us are unlikely to compare our taxes under Obama鈥檚 plan to what we paid a decade ago (does anyone even remember?), let鈥檚 just look at what happens relative to what we pay now. By that standard, the President proposes to raise about $2 trillion more in tax revenue over the next decade. About half would come from his well-advertised tax increases on those making more than $200,000 ($250,000 for couples), such as higher rates on ordinary income and on dividends and capital gains, and higher estate taxes.

Overall, in 2013 a typical household would pay about $800 more in taxes under Obamas鈥� plan. But that average masks huge differences along the economic food chain. Those making $100,000 or less would see little change in their tax bill on average. However, those making $500,000-$1 million would pay an average of about $20,000 more, while those making $1 million or more can expect to pay an additional $150,000 and face a 7 percent cut in after-tax incomes.

Only about two percent of households would see any change in their taxes as a result of Obama鈥檚 proposed hikes on high-earners.

What would the Obama fiscal plan do to the deficit? Rather than getting entangled in baselines, just look at the Congressional Budget Office鈥檚 latest of how much money Obama plans to raise and spend in 2013. Revenues would climb from less than 15 percent of Gross Domestic Product to about 17.7 percent of GDP. That鈥檚 still a bit below the 18 percent average over the past four decades. Spending, by contrast, would drop from 24.3 percent to 23.2 percent of GDP, well above the 40-year average of about 21 percent. Keep in mind that some new revenue and reduced spending would result from an improving economy, rather than from the President鈥檚 policy proposals.

The bottom line: Today鈥檚 deficit of about 9.5 percent of GDP would fall to about 5.5 percent. That鈥檚 an improvement, of course, but far short of fiscal stability.

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