海角大神

Malls may close, but the聽most聽popular stores aren't likely to give up their foothold on Thanksgiving's turf anytime soon.

Looking to history for guidance

Taking at look at what聽Black Friday hours the top players have kept over the last nine years, we can see the long, slow march into Thursday.

This should surprise absolutely no one who's paid even the smallest bit of attention to聽聽over the years, but the visual is striking聽in that it shows that聽Black Friday sales have been interfering with Thanksgiving dinner since 2013. That's when聽,听听补苍诲听聽all crossed聽over into聽hours traditionally reserved for聽Americans' evening meals.

It's telling that after three years of public backlash, with the exception of聽, the merchants in our chart haven't聽pulled back at all. On the contrary, it seems as though they've settled in. The message is clear: Outrage takes a backseat to profitability.

Smaller聽stores will close in greater numbers.

Sure, the smaller stores you typically find inside malls are more likely to close,听partly under pressure from so many malls across the country that have聽.聽For the vast majority of these stores, you can start shopping their Black Friday sales online at midnight on Thanksgiving morning, anyway, and save all of your crowd-fighting energy for聽bigger fish.

We'll see more mid-tier stores retreat to Black Friday.

And we may see more mid-tier defections, like聽, which followed Staples' lead after watching them closely last year. Likewise, we expect to see more sporting goods stores聽closing after聽聽wildly popular聽anti-Black Friday campaign.

As heartening as that seems to the anti-Black Thursday crowd, these stores聽never have been the kind of stores聽that anyone was really excited to camp out for or hit up聽at 2am after an exhausting run through Walmart's Black Friday gauntlet.聽Light foot traffic in the wee hours ultimately doesn't justify the cost of keeping the lights on overnight.

The big boxes and major department stores will聽stick to Thanksgiving open times.

But it's聽聽that's made it clear that the聽Thanksgiving聽status quo isn't going anywhere聽when they announced plans to open at 5pm on Thursday, an hour聽earlier聽than last year. There's no retreat happening here. Macy's feels no pressure from the malls since their stores are typically anchors with their own entrances. It doesn't matter if shoppers are angry, just so long as they show up with cash in hand.

So in the end, we don't expect to see聽any earth-shattering announcements from the likes of Walmart, Target, Best Buy and Kohl's. Forget caving to public pressure 鈥� they know聽that shoppers are at their beck and call. If you want a shot at a stellar聽4K聽TV doorbuster, you'll suck it up and聽be there.聽Even if your heart is full of resentment.

2016 Black Friday Store Hours Predictions

There are聽our predictions for the Black Friday store hours at聽some of the most popular merchants.

• 聽- Thursday at 5pm
  Best Buy has been holding steady at 5pm for a couple years now, and we think they'll stay put.
• 聽- Friday at 6am
  Home Depot has opened at 6am on Black Friday for many years now. Any change is very unlikely.
• 聽- Thursday at 2pm
  JCPenney has been pushing聽earlier and earlier聽on Thanksgiving for awhile, casting about for an聽optimal start time.
• 聽- Thursday at 7pm
  There's been very little consistency to Kmart's hours over the last few years. In 2014, they had doorbusters at both 6am and 7pm on Thursday. In 2015 dropped the 6am opening time but kept 7pm.聽Is that their sweet spot? It seems like a safe bet.
• 聽- Thursday at 6pm
  Another case of part consistency聽serving up a solid prediction.
• 聽- Thursday at 5pm (CONFIRMED)
  This one isn't a prediction. Macy's confirmed the news to聽聽on October 16th. We're treating it as a sign of things to come this season.
• 聽- Thursday at 6pm
  They've opened their doors at 6pm for two years running, and we're looking for three.
• 聽- Thursday at 6pm
  If Walmart stays open on Thanksgiving as expected, there's no way that Target lets that go unanswered. Look for them to match whatever Walmart does.
• 聽- Thursday at 5pm
  Toys R Us has been comfortably settled in at 5pm on Thursday for the past three years.
• 聽- Thursday at 5pm or 6pm聽
  Walmart has launched their sale at 6pm for the last three years, but we also think there's about a 50/50 chance that they聽may push聽it聽to 5pm for 2016 to steal some of Best Buy's thunder.

Not having it? We're also keeping聽a聽list of聽.

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