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If you're already chomping at the bit to start planning your Black Friday shopping, you're not alone! Here's聽when we expect to see the Black Friday ads from your favorite stores聽come out.

Before we get into our predictions, there are a聽important points聽to聽keep in mind.

All dates we give are estimates.

We've got a lot of data聽about when we've seen Black Friday ads leak in the past, and we've got聽enough experience covering Black Friday news that we're pretty good at giving that data a gut check. However, no two Black Fridays are alike, and there's always something that comes out of left field to surprise us. In other words, if we're wrong, please be gentle!

True Black Friday ad leaks are聽increasingly聽rare.

The ugly, unvarnished truth about ad leaks is that they are nearly always theft. Someone swipes a copy off the printer聽for some cash under the table, a聽disgruntled employee ships an unfinished copy off to a friend who puts it on a website somewhere. The trouble with these leaks for Black Friday shoppers is that they're sometimes unfinished copies and thus can't always be trusted to be accurate.聽Since the rise of Black Friday websites, most retailers have tightened up the security of their ad creation process, and聽leaks are happening a lot less often than they used to.

I'll take this opportunity to note that Brad's Deals takes copyright seriously 鈥� we never pay for leaked Black Friday ads, and although聽we may occasionally publish a leak, we only do so聽for retailers who allow it.

Election Day could throw a wrench in everyone's plans.

The upcoming聽election undoubtedly will have the entire country's undivided attention on November 8th. Just about all聽other news that comes out that day will be buried, lost, and wholly ignored by, well, everyone. It will be a black hole for anyone with something to promote.聽That聽effectively takes Election Day off the table as a serious possibility for any new Black Friday ads, even if a retailer has published on that day in the past. We believe that Monday and Wednesday are much more likely.

Phew! Okay! That was a lot of notes. On to our聽predictions! Let's go!

Best Buy Black Friday Ad

ETA:聽Wednesday November 9, 2016
Leak Potential:聽Low

For the last few years, the聽聽has not leaked ahead of its聽intended publication date. Look for it to arrive online around November 9th, with paper copies showing up in newspapers that weekend.聽Check out our聽聽to learn more about what you can聽expect from the ad.

Home Depot Black Friday Ad

ETA:聽Thursday November 26, 2016
Leak Potential:聽Zero

Home Depot famously sends out preemptive "cease and desist" letters that threaten聽sites like ours with legal action should we publish their ad before its official publication. For us, that means that even if someone sends a leaked copy to us we won't be putting it up on the site until then.聽(Darn those pesky lawyers...) The聽聽is always published聽on聽Thanksgiving Day, the day before their Black Friday sale, so in this case our ETA is pretty much set in stone.

Kohl's聽Black Friday Ad

ETA:聽Monday November 7, 2016
Leak Potential:聽Low-Medium

Last year, Kohl's gave their ad to some of the websites that cover Black Friday a few days ahead of its official launch date聽and foolishly trusted them not to leak it early. It leaked anyway, of course. Having been聽burned, I don't expect聽to see the聽this year before its publication date, usually right around Election Day. Look for it to drop on Monday or Wednesday that week. We've published more聽if you want to go deeper.

Macy's聽Black Friday Ad

ETA:聽Tuesday November 1, 2016
Leak Potential:聽High

In all of the years that we've been watching Black Friday,聽there has never been a year when the聽聽wasn't leaked. In fact, it's usually聽the first聽ad to arrive from a major store. That leak usually happens right around November 1st.

Sears Black Friday Ad

ETA:聽Saturday November 12, 2016
Leak Potential:聽High

Sears is another retailer that tends to leak like a sieve. Hardly a year goes by when we don't receive an anonymous copy of the聽聽from a throwaway聽email account. In 2015,聽Sears聽managed to keep it under control, and we聽were able to work with their team to聽leak it exclusively to our readers one day early. That said,聽Sears doesn't yet have the same aura of process聽security that other retailers have achieved, and we think the聽potential for an uncontrolled leak is probably still pretty high.

JCPenney Black Friday Ad

ETA:聽Monday November 7, 2016
Leak Potential:聽Low

JCPenney is another store that hasn't聽seen a true ad leak in several years, so we'll be waiting until it's officially released. There's a presidential election right smack of the middle of their usual release schedule, and we聽think the brass will be聽smart enough to avoid dropping the聽聽on Election Day.

Kmart Black Friday Ad

ETA:聽Wednesday November 9, 2016
Leak Potential:聽Low

You'd expect that the聽聽would leak right along side of Sears, given that they're two branches of the same company. Surprisingly, that's not the case. Kmart ads tend to show up聽around the same time every year, roughly two weeks before Thanksgiving.

Target Black Friday Ad

ETA:聽Monday November 7, 2016
Leak Potential:聽Low

Although it has leaked in years past,聽for the last few Target has managed to keep it under wraps until they dropped it themselves. It seems as though they've gotten their process locked down, so a leak in 2016 would be unexpected to say the least.聽Look for the聽聽to arrive right around Election Day, and check out our聽聽in the meantime.

Toys R Us Black Friday Ad

ETA:聽Saturday November 12, 2016
Leak Potential:聽Medium

The timing of the聽聽has never really聽been all that consistent. However,聽for the last two years it's shown up the weekend before Thanksgiving and we think that's a pretty fair bet for 2016 as well.

Walmart Black Friday Ad

ETA:聽Friday November 11, 2016
Leak Potential:聽Low-Medium

In the past, I would have said you were crazy if you thought the聽聽might be leaked. Like Home Depot, their lawyers have always sent preemptive don't-even-think-about-it letters and let's face it, no one wants to fight Walmart. But last year, Walmart's Black Friday marketing was uncharacteristically disorganized, the letter never came, and聽without聽a legal threat in place the ad did leak 鈥� albeit just one hour before it was published officially.

Will Walmart return to form for Black Friday 2016? It's anyone's guess, really. Even if they don't, anyone sitting on a leak might still hesitate after so many years of being warned against it. We've also heard rumors that the printed version of Walmart's Black Friday ad is pretty much the last one off the presses, making an聽early leak even more unlikely. But if you're curious about what to expect from the ad itself, check out our聽.

This article first appeared in .