海角大神

Can Romney possibly recover? A survey conducted between Sept. 12 and Sept. 16 by the P聽鈥� before the 鈥�47 percent victim鈥� video came to light 鈥� showed Obama ahead of Romney 51% to 43% among likely voters.

That鈥檚 the biggest margin in the September survey prior to a presidential election since Bill Clinton led Bob Dole, 50% to 38% in 1996.

And, remember, this recent poll was done before America watched Romney belittle almost half the nation.

For the last several days I鈥檝e been deluged with calls from my inside-the-beltway friends telling me 鈥淩omney鈥檚 dead.鈥�

Hold it. Rumors of Romney鈥檚 demise are premature for at least four reasons:

1.聽聽Between now and Election Day come two jobs reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics 鈥� October 5 and November 2. If they鈥檙e as bad as the last report, showing only 96,000 jobs added in August (125,000 are needed just to keep up with population growth) and the lowest percentage of employed adults since 1981, Romney鈥檚 claim the economy is off track becomes more credible, and Obama鈥檚 that it鈥檚 on the mend harder to defend.

With gas prices rising, corporate profits shrinking, most of Europe in recession, Japan still a basket case, and the Chinese economy slowing, the upcoming job reports are unlikely to be stellar.

2.聽Also between now and Election Day are three presidential debates, starting October 3. It鈥檚 commonly thought Obama will win them handily but that expectation may be very wrong 鈥� and could work against him. Yes, Romney is an automaton 鈥� but when the dials are set properly he can give a good imitation of a human engaged in sharp debate. He did well in the Republican primary debates.

Obama, by contrast, can come off slow and ponderous. Recall how he stuttered and stumbled during the 2008 Democratic primary debates. And he hasn鈥檛 been in a real-live debate for four years; Romney recently emerged from almost a year of them.

3. During the next 7 final weeks of the campaign, the anti-Obama forces will be spending a gigantic amount of money. Not just the Romney campaign and Romney鈥檚 super PACs, but other super PACS aligned with Romney, billionaires spending their own fortunes, and non-profit 鈥渟ocial welfare鈥� organizations like the Chamber of Commerce, Karl Rove鈥檚 鈥淐rossroads,鈥� and various Koch-brothers political fronts 鈥� all will dump hundreds of millions on TV and radio spots, much of it spreading lies and distortions. Some of this money will be devoted to get-out-the-vote drives 鈥� to phone banks and door-to-door canvassing to identify favorable voters, and vans to bring them to the polling stations.

It鈥檚 an easy bet they鈥檒l far outspend Obama and his allies. I鈥檝e heard two-to-one.聽The race is still close enough that a comparative handful of voters in swing states can make the difference 鈥� which means gobs of money used to motivate voters to polling stations can be critical.

4. As they鈥檝e displayed before, the Republican Party will do whatever it can to win 鈥� even if it means disenfranchising certain voters. To date, 11 states have enacted voter identification laws, all designed by Republican legislatures and governors to dampen Democratic turnout.

The GOP is also encouraging what can only be termed 鈥渧oter vigilante鈥� groups to 鈥渕onitor polling stations to prevent fraud鈥� 鈥� which means intimidating minorities who have every right to vote. We can鈥檛 know at this point how successful these efforts may be but it鈥檚 a dangerous wildcard.聽And what about those Diebold voting machines?

So don鈥檛 for a moment believe 鈥淩omney鈥檚 dead,鈥� and don鈥檛 be complacent. The hard work lies ahead, in the next seven weeks.聽

And even if Obama is reelected, more hard work begins after Inauguration Day 鈥� when we must push him to be tougher on the Republicans than he was in his first term, and do what the nation needs.