海角大神

January鈥檚 227,000 net new jobs 鈥� the third month in a row of job gains well in excess of 200,000 鈥� is good news for President Obama and bad news for Mitt Romney.

Jobs are coming back fast enough to blunt Republican attacks against Obama on the economy and to rob Romney of the issue he鈥檇 prefer to be talking about in his primary battle against social conservatives in the GOP.

But jobs aren鈥檛 coming back fast enough to significantly reduce the nation鈥檚 backlog of 10 million jobs. That backlog consists of 5.3 million lost during the recession and another 4.7 million that needed to have been added just to keep up with the growth of the working-age population since the recession began.

If the American economy continues to produce jobs at the good rate it鈥檚 maintained over the last three months, averaging 245,000 per month, the backlog won鈥檛 be whittled down for another five years 鈥� long after Barack Obama finishes his second term, should voters grant him another.

But whether even that good rate continues depends largely on whether consumer demand can be revived. Spending by American consumers is 70 percent of U.S. economic activity. But so far, spending is anemic.

American consumers have replaced worn-out cars and appliances, but little else. They haven鈥檛 had the dough. Their wages are still falling, adjusted for inflation. The value of their homes 鈥� most consumers鈥� single biggest asset 鈥� continues to drop.

Home values are down by an average of a third from their 2006 peak. Consumers understandably feel far poorer as a result. Declining home prices also mean consumers can鈥檛 use their homes as collateral for new loans, as they did before 2008. And even with low interest rates, refinancing is difficult.

Corporate profits are up but the money isn鈥檛 flowing to American workers. The ratio of profits to wages is the highest on record 鈥� since the government began keeping track in 1947. Not only has the median wage continued to drop, adjusted for inflation, but a far smaller share of working-age Americans is now employed (58.6 percent) than was employed five years ago (63.3 percent). Today鈥檚 employment-to-population ratio isn鈥檛 much higher than it was at its lowest point last summer, when it dropped to 58.2 percent.

The major driver of the U.S. economy over the past several months hasn鈥檛 been consumer spending. It鈥檚 been businesses rebuilding depleted inventories. Wholesalers increased their stockpiles again in January, bringing them up almost a quarter from their low in September 2009.

But businesses won鈥檛 continue to rebuild inventories unless consumers start buying again.聽big-time. And consumers won鈥檛 resume spending as they did before the recession until they鈥檙e far better off financially.

Yet how can they be sufficiently better off when their major asset has shrunk so much and when so few of the economic gains are going to them?

This is the central paradox at the heart of the American economy today. If it鈥檚 not resolved, the jobs recovery will stall, as it did last spring.

A year ago, remember, we had another three-month run of good job numbers. Last February, March, and April saw net gains of more than 200,000 jobs a month. But that job boomlet abruptly ended.

At the time most observers blamed the stall on external events 鈥� the Japanese earthquake, Europe鈥檚 gathering debt woes, and higher gas prices. In reality, it stalled because of the shallow pockets of American consumers.

Another stall this time might be blamed on any number of external events 鈥� slower growth in China and India, the unraveling of Europe鈥檚 debt-crisis deal, and higher gas prices.

But if another stall occurs, the real reason will be Americans once again ran out of money.