What the Tea Party is planning for 2011 (Prediction #1)
Next week starts the new Congress, and with it the Tea Party conservatives. What鈥檚 their strategy? What will they rally around?
They鈥檒l grouse endlessly about government spending but I don鈥檛 think they鈥檒l use any particular spending bill to mobilize and energize their grass roots. The big bucks are in Social Security, Medicare, and defense, which are too popular. And their support for a permanent extension of the Bush tax cuts will make a mockery of any argument about taming the deficit.
Nor will they focus on the debt ceiling. Their opposition to raising it will generate a one-day story but won鈥檛 rally the troops or register with the public. Most Americans aren鈥檛 particularly interested in the debt ceiling, don鈥檛 know what it means, and don鈥檛 feel affected by it.
Instead, I expect their rallying cry will be about the mandatory purchase of health care built into the new healthcare law. The mandate is the least popular, and least understood, aspect of that law. Yet it鈥檚 the lynchpin. Without it, much of the rest of the law falls apart: It鈥檚 impossible to cover all high-risk Americans, including those with pre-existing conditions, unless those at far lower risk are required to buy insurance.
Knowing they don鈥檛 stand a chance of getting a direct repeal of the mandate (even if they could get a majority in the House for it, they won鈥檛 summon 60 votes in the Senate, and have no possibility of overriding a presidential veto), they鈥檒l try to strip the federal budget appropriation of money needed to put the mandate into effect. This could lead to a standoff with the White House over government funding in general, and a possible government shutdown.
My betting is Tea Party conservatives wouldn鈥檛 mind a government shutdown over the healthcare mandate. Unlike Bill Clinton鈥檚 showdown with Newt Gingrich, which hurt the conservative cause, Tea Partiers believe this one could be helpful. In their view, it would enable them to stand on principle, dramatize their argument that the Obama administration overstepped with healthcare, and generate a particular event around which they can summon the energy and enthusiasm of their ground troops 鈥� all with an eye on mobilizing for the 2012 general election.
Advice to Obama White House: Get ready.
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