Chicago Fed: US economy at near-recession level
The latest release of the聽聽indicated pronounced weakness for the national economy with the index falling notably from the prior month to stand at a near-recessionary level of -0.56 while the three month moving average also slumped to -0.56.聽
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity collected into four overall categories of 鈥減roduction and income鈥�, 鈥渆mployment, unemployment and income鈥�, 鈥減ersonal consumption and housing鈥� and 鈥渟ales, orders and inventories鈥�.聽
The Chicago Fed regards a value of zero for the total index as indicating that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate while a negative value indicates below average growth.聽
A value at or below -0.70 for the three month moving average of the national activity index (CFNAI-MA3) indicates that the national economy has either just entered or continues in recession.聽
