Unemployment claims rose last week, but overall trend still points downwards
showed an increase to initial unemployment claims and a decrease to continued unemployment claims as a declining trend continued to shape up for both initial and traditional continued claims.
Seasonally adjusted 鈥渋nitial鈥� unemployment increased by 18,000 to 409,000 claims from last week鈥檚 revised 391,000 claims while seasonally adjusted 鈥渃ontinued鈥� claims declined by 47,000 resulting in an 鈥渋nsured鈥� unemployment rate of 3.3%.
Since the middle of 2008 though, two federal government sponsored 鈥渆xtended鈥� unemployment benefit programs (the 鈥渆xtended benefits鈥� and 鈥淓UC 2008鈥� from recent legislation) have been picking up claimants that have fallen off of the traditional unemployment benefits rolls.
Currently there are some 4.50 million people receiving federal 鈥渆xtended鈥� unemployment benefits.
Taken together with the latest 4.11 million people that are currently counted as receiving traditional continued unemployment benefits, there are on state and federal unemployment rolls.
The shows the recent trend in initial non-seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims with the year-over-year percent change acting as a rough equivalent of a seasonally adjustment.
Historically, unemployment claims both 鈥渋nitial鈥� and 鈥渃ontinued鈥� (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.
The shows 鈥減opulation adjusted鈥� continued claims (ratio of unemployment claims to the non-institutional population) and the unemployment rate since 1967.
Adjusting for the general increase in population tames the continued claims spike down a bit.
The for larger version) shows 鈥渋nitial鈥� and 鈥渃ontinued鈥� claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967.
Also, acceleration and deceleration of unemployment claims has generally preceded comparable movements to the unemployment rate by 3 鈥� 8 months ( for larger version).
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