Is this what an upswing feels like?
Today, the (JOLT) showing that, on a year-over-year basis, private non-farm job 鈥渙penings鈥� increased 2.65%, job 鈥渉ires鈥� increased 5.91%, job 鈥渓ayoffs and discharges鈥� decreased 27.93% and job quits declined 4.74%.
Job 鈥渙penings鈥�, the reports most leading 鈥渄emand side鈥� indicator, appears to be in the process of defining a bottom of sorts vacillating monthly between gain and loss but not dropping near the low levels seen during early 2009.
Sliding down that slope of the Beveridge curve, the decline in the job vacancy rate clearly corresponded with an equal but inverse movement up in the general unemployment rate as can be plainly seen in the following chart (click chart for larger version).
Job 鈥渉iring鈥� activity has also appears to be defining a bottom albeit at a historically low level.
Job separations are continuing to decline as both quitting activity continues to remain at a very low level and layoffs by employers continue to slow.
It鈥檚 important to understand that job 鈥渜uits鈥� are included as a component of the 鈥渟eparations鈥� data series as 鈥渜uitting鈥� is a valid means of workers 鈥渟eparating鈥� from employers but their inclusion tends to create an overall procyclical trend in what would otherwise be logically thought of as a countercyclical process (i.e. downturn leads to increase in separations not decrease).
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