More education isn't always the solution
Just prepping for a talk on education and wanted to share some thoughts.
Too often, economists and policymakers have one recommendation to fix everything: more education.聽 And truth be told, I鈥檓 pretty much on board, but there are important nuances that tend to be left out of the discussion.
鈥揚articularly when it comes to K-12, public policy often seems to be asking school teachers to fix all of society鈥檚 ills, while beating up on them for a) not all being above average, b) being in unions, and c) resisting accountability.聽 The fact is, kids increasingly arrive at school beset by a wide range of social problems generated by poverty and inequality.聽 That鈥檚 never an excuse for not having the best public system we can have, but don鈥檛 expect it to solve problems beyond its scope鈥揺specially when instead of retaining and improving the quality of teachers鈥� jobs, we鈥檙e laying them off.
鈥揇o unions protect lousy teachers?聽 I鈥檓 sure some do some of the time, and I鈥檓 sure you see that same dynamic in the private sector.聽 I can tell you for a fact that the leadership of today鈥檚 teachers鈥� unions stand firmly against tenure for undeserving teachers.聽 But I can also assure you that some (not all) of the union bashing isn鈥檛 about better education.聽 It鈥檚 about union bashing.
鈥揜e higher education, the consensus among economists tends to be that there鈥檚 a large skills mismatch between employers鈥� demands and the skills of the workforce.* 聽I don鈥檛 buy it.聽 The data from the BLS on occupational skill demands now and in the future actually matches up pretty cleanly with the supply of skill, at least at the level of educational attainment.聽 Yes, employers constantly say they can鈥檛 find skilled workers, but that鈥檚 kind of the point鈥hey constantly say it.聽 If it were true, you鈥檇 see it in a more quickly聽rising compensation premium to workers with higher levels of education.聽 And you don鈥檛 really see that type of acceleration.聽 (Note: the emphasis on 鈥渁cceleration鈥� is important here鈥攖he fact that college workers are paid more than high school workers isn鈥檛 the issue鈥攗nmet skill demands imply an increasingly rising premium, and the college premium has actually decelerated in recent years, as this from EPI reveals鈥搃t shows the regression-adjusted college premium as flat since the latter 90s for women and rising more slowly for men.)
鈥揃ut here鈥檚 the thing: I still think we鈥檇 have a better economy/society with higher levels of educational attainment鈥鈥檓 quite certain, in fact.聽 It鈥檚 wrong to think that the jobs of the future all will demand wicked high skill 鈥攚e鈥檙e going to need lots of home health aides, cashiers, security guards, equipment technicians, child care workers, along with high-end engineers.聽聽 But to have smarter, better educated people in all of those jobs makes all the sense in the world.聽 We want our child care workers and home health aides to be highly trained鈥攏ot as Ph.Ds in robotics, but in their fields.
鈥揟he way to understand the nexus of education and the economy/jobs is thus not in the traditional skills mismatch framework.聽 That鈥檚 way too vague and disconnected from what鈥檚 happening on the ground.聽 Instead, think of an old-fashioned production function where better inputs generate better outputs.聽 Human capital is one of those inputs.聽 The way forward is thus not to just willy-nilly advocate for greater college attainment.聽 It鈥檚 to take a clear-eyed look at education and job/career training needs across the life-cycle.聽 The future surely requires kids with training; it also requires health technicians with AA鈥檚 who can keep that MRI percolating the way it鈥檚 supposed to.聽 And child care workers who thoroughly understand how kids learn, and home health aides who know a lot about gerontology.
Much more to say about this so more to come. 聽Next: college access isn鈥檛 the whole story鈥攊t鈥檚 also about completion.
*Update: An economist friend who knows of what she speaks tells me that she doesn鈥檛 think most economists agree that there鈥檚 a mismatch between the supply of and demand for skills in the workforce. 聽She may be right, but I think it鈥檚 pretty widely held. 聽 And there鈥檚 no question that you hear it all the time from employers and policy makers.
