海角大神

Fox bid for Time Warner: A counter to cable company mergers?

The cash-and-stock bid by Murdoch's Twenty-First Century Fox Inc. was partly meant to counter consolidation among US TV distributors like Comcast-Time Warner Cable and AT&T-DirecTV.

|
Diane Bondareff/AP/File
People walk by the Time Warner Center in New York. Time Warner Inc. on Wednesday said it has rejected a takeover bid from Twenty-First Century Fox and says it has no interest in further discussions with Rupert Murdoch's media entertainment giant.

Even though Rupert Murdoch's $76 billion bid for rival media giant聽Time聽Warner聽Inc. has been rejected, that doesn't mean the change sweeping through the TV and film industries will stop any聽time聽soon.

The cash-and-stock bid by Murdoch's Twenty-First Century聽Fox聽Inc. was partly meant to counter consolidation among U.S. TV distributors like Comcast-Time聽Warner聽Cable and AT&T-DirecTV.

The more must-have channels like HBO and聽Fox聽News Channel are assembled under one company, the stronger that company's bargaining position in demanding licensing fees from the TV distributors, no matter how big they get.

Time聽Warner聽also owns TV channels CNN, TNT and TBS, along with the聽Warner聽Bros. movie studio, which includes Batman, Superman and Harry Potter.聽Fox聽owns the 20th Century聽Fox聽movie studio, the聽Fox聽broadcast network and such TV channels asFox聽News and FX.

Much of the value is in the television channels because of the ever-increasing fees they are able to command from cable and satellite TV providers. Disputes over such fees have led to temporary blackouts of popular channels from various systems.

The Comcast-Time聽Warner聽Cable and AT&T-DirecTV deals are both undergoing regulatory review. In disclosing the rejected bid Wednesday,聽Time聽Warner聽and聽Fox聽indicated that their talks were over, but analysts don't expect Murdoch to give up. The offer was worth about $86.30 a share based on Tuesday's closing price.

If talks resume and a takeover succeeds, analysts see some possible consumer benefits.

鈥 TV EVERYWHERE COULD GET A PUSH

A combination could accelerate the industry's "TV Everywhere" push, in which traditional media companies make their channels available over the Internet as part of a TV subscription. It's the pay TV industry's answer to the rise of streaming services such as Netflix, YouTube and Amazon.

The hang-up in making those channels available online has partly been licensing deals with content producers. A unified company with an even larger suite of channels from TBS to FX could make such deals standard industrywide. Apps modeled afterTime聽Warner's聽successful HBO Go could also be applied to more networks.

"A player with more scale would be able to work on that and make digital content offering more user-friendly to the consumer," Nomura analyst Anthony DiClemente said.

鈥 MOVIE STUDIOS COULD SHORTEN THEATER EXCLUSIVITY

With a North American box office market share of around 30 percent, a combined聽Warner聽Bros.-20th Century聽Fox聽movie studio could push movie theater companies to shorten the聽time聽between when a movie hits theaters and when it's available for sale or rental through digital outlets like iTunes.

A shortened window helps studios spend less money on marketing because they wouldn't have to advertise each聽time聽a movie becomes available on a different platform. Theater companies have pushed back, as earlier digital release聽times聽could cut into ticket sales.

ESPN COULD GET A CHALLENGER

While there's no guarantee that the cost of sports rights would come down, a merger would reduce the number of bidders for such rights and allow a combined company to spread acquired content over more channels. For example, after Comcast bought NBCUniversal, it rebranded Comcast's Versus channel as NBC Sports Network and used it to carry figure skating and hockey during the Winter Olympics in Sochi.

Fox聽could bolster its sports channel,聽Fox聽Sports One, by combining efforts with聽Time聽Warner's聽TNT to recapture the rights to broadcast NBA basketball games when they expire in 2016. TNT shares those rights with The Walt Disney Co.'s ESPN and ABC.

TNT also has rights to college basketball and professional golf, adding to聽Fox's聽Major League Baseball and NASCAR auto racing.

"A combined portfolio of sports could better challenge ESPN," DiClemente wrote in a research note.

鈥 BUT THERE ARE POSSIBLE DOWNSIDES

To blunt the rise of streaming services like Netflix and Amazon Instant Video, a combined company would have more power to withhold content or demand steeper licensing fees. That, in turn, could force streaming services to raise subscription prices.

And further consolidation puts more media voices under the control of one entity. That's why聽Fox, which operates the lucrativeFox聽News Channel, is willing to sell聽Time聽Warner's聽CNN, according to one person familiar with the matter. That person spoke on condition of anonymity because that deal point wasn't officially made public.

It's unclear how regulators would view so many pay TV channels being owned by the same company.

鈥 AND IT'S NOT OVER YET

DiClemente and Janney analyst Tony Wible both believe that with interest rates low and with聽Fox聽having a healthy balance sheet,Fox聽could raise its bid above $100 per share by borrowing more money.

It also could set off interest by other bidders for聽Time聽Warner, which in turn could set off other mergers among content companies that don't want to be left out.

"It's a chain reaction," Wible said. "There will be more consolidation on the content side."

Crockett agreed. "I think what this is, is 'Game on.'"

You've read  of  free articles. Subscribe to continue.
Real news can be honest, hopeful, credible, constructive.
海角大神 was founded in 1908 to lift the standard of journalism and uplift humanity. We aim to 鈥渟peak the truth in love.鈥 Our goal is not to tell you what to think, but to give you the essential knowledge and understanding to come to your own intelligent conclusions. Join us in this mission by subscribing.
QR Code to Fox bid for Time Warner: A counter to cable company mergers?
Read this article in
/Business/Latest-News-Wires/2014/0717/Fox-bid-for-Time-Warner-A-counter-to-cable-company-mergers
QR Code to Subscription page
Start your subscription today
/subscribe