Stocks rise if Romney wins; bonds, if Obama does
The re-election of U.S. President Barack Obama next week would be positive for bonds, while a victory for Republican rival Mitt Romney would be better for equities, according to a survey of professional investors by Barclays.
The survey of investors who manage a combined $10 trillion-plus of assets comes as the candidates gear up for the last week of campaigning in what has become a tightly fought race, with polls suggesting that it is too close to call.
听, a multimillionaire and co-founder of听Bain Capital, has positioned himself as the business-friendly candidate for the Nov. 6 ballot.
听If听听wins a second term as President, investors favor听听but are divided about the direction of听equities, the survey found. Many anticipate a 鈥渟mall and short-lived鈥� equity sell-off if Obama wins and a 鈥渟ubstantial or small鈥� increase in equities if Romney makes it to the White House.
听鈥淥bama鈥檚 victory would likely be perceived as preserving the status quo,鈥� analysts at Barclays wrote in a research note. 鈥淎 Romney win is more likely to suggest a change of direction to clients by way of a better growth outlook.鈥�
Whoever wins is facing a looming听at the start of 2013, as automatic spending cuts and the expiration of Bush-era tax cuts hit the economy. (Read More:听)
听A congressional deadlock, which could affect the government鈥檚 ability to reach a deal to avert such an outcome would concern investors most following an Obama victory, according to Barclays. (Read More:听)
If Romney wins, the biggest concerns would be whether he would call time on looser monetary policy by the U.S.听.
听Romney has stated his opposition to the Fed鈥檚 latest round of听, also known as QE3, and to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke seeking a third term, signaling that he may call for a change in the central bank鈥檚 policy. Monetary easing has been credited with helping to keep the U.S. economy out of a double-dip听, although critics argue that it is ultimately putting the Fed in danger of a riskier balance sheet.
听These concerns about a Romney administration鈥檚 effect on the Fed may explain why investors expect a sell-off in bond markets after a Romney victory and a rally if Obama is successful.
