Best time for a Greek default? It's now.
As sovereign debt defaults go, there may be no better time than now for Greece.
聽Global investors are clearly in risk-on mode, with the US stock market off to its best start in 15 years and equities in many emerging markets faring even better.
聽Friday鈥檚 job report helped assuage at least one of the primary fears regarding the U.S. economy, even though the housing market remains a shambles鈥攁n improving shambles, but still a long ways from healthy.
聽Last week in general gave life to the recovery theme, with 15 of 23 indicators beating expectations and causing some economists to raise their growth outlook for the full year.
聽So, with sentiment running so garishly positive, why not go ahead and get that pesky Greek default and all of the accompanying futile denial out of the way already?
聽鈥淚n the last six months, there's probably been no better time to let Greece strategically default than right now,鈥� said Citigroup credit analyst Jason Shoup.
聽Shoup was quick to point out that a Greek debt default is not Citi鈥檚 鈥渂ase case,鈥� or most likely outcome, but one that needs to be taken seriously if the markets are ever to absorb the magnitude of Greece鈥檚 problems and come out intact on the other side.
聽One key reason is that the window could be small for the present enthusiasm to last.
聽Some economists consider聽鈥攁 243,000 surge in payrolls and an unemployment rate drop to 8.3 percent鈥攗nsustainable and as much a product of statistical anomalies as a jump in hiring. Specifically, a revision that saw the workforce drop by 1.2 million and a consistent drop in the labor force participation served as troubling signs.
If the recent uptick in economic indicators is indeed transitory, policy makers may want to consider attacking the Greece situation now while the market can still bear it.
聽鈥淟etting Greece default either after a (Private Sector Involvement) haircut or in lieu of may have been unthinkable just a few months ago, but it wouldn't surprise us if resistance to such an idea may be weakening in the halls of Brussels and Frankfurt,鈥� Shoup said. 鈥淐ertainly, buoyant markets seem to be emboldening policymakers to take more of a hard line even while Portuguese bonds oscillate.鈥�
聽Indeed, there鈥檚聽.
聽It鈥檚 hardly a secret that Greece will be only the first of several dominos likely to fall in the Eurozone sovereign structure. Several of its neighbors face burgeoning obligations that they cannot meet, and Greece鈥檚 importance as much as anything is that it will serve as a signpost for how future crises will be handled.
聽An orderly Greek default in which panic is limited and bondholder haircuts are contained means future defaults may not capsize the markets either. But let the crisis spread and the fallout could be catastrophic.
聽Bob McKeee, chief economist at Independent Stratedy, a London-based research firm, told CNBC that Portugal will be next on the agenda. The nation is far more stable than Greece, which is why the eurozone needs to address its problem children first and then work on more manageable problems.
聽Concerns over Portuguese debt have come since the nation鈥檚 10-year bond rates hit their highest level since the creation of the European Monetary Union. That came after a debt downgrade from Standard & Poor鈥檚. In a supposedly solid country with a new government, investor confidence remains a problem.
鈥淲e believe this is a sign that, despite the tentative progress made by eurozone leaders on a 鈥榝iscal compact鈥� and increased liquidity support from the (European Central Bank), the eurozone remains in crisis,鈥� London-based Capital Economics said in a research note.
聽News over the weekend that no agreement has been reached in Greece mildly spooked the markets in Monday trading.
聽The developments show that despite liquidity assurances through the ECB鈥檚 Long-Term Refinancing Operations, the market wants some closure on how the European crisis will be handled.
聽Making a decisive move at a time when global markets have stabilized and appear ready to handle shocks, and before other debt obligations in nations such as Italy come to the fore, likely will be just the right medicine.
聽鈥淲hile a sovereign debt default in Greece or Portugal might not trigger the end of the euro,鈥� Capital wrote in its note, 鈥渟uch an outcome in Italy could very well do just that.鈥�
