Traffic fatalities down 4.2% in first half of 2013
Highway fatalities have been on the decline in the U.S.,聽. Unfortunately, that trend reversed course last year: when all the dust from 2012 has settled, analysts expect to see an increase in roadway deaths of 8.2 percent, which is significantly higher than聽聽(though not quite聽the nine percent聽). It's the first uptick America has seen in six years.
That's the bad news. The good news is that although official numbers for 2012 probably won't be released until December, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is already forecasting figures for聽2013. If NHTSA's predictions are correct, they'll bring the U.S. fatality rate back to near-historic lows.
In the first six months of 2013,聽15,470聽people died on America's roadways -- slightly more than the聽14,924聽fatalities recorded in the first six months of 2011, but fewer than the聽16,150estimated for the same period in 2012.聽
And it's not just total fatalities that are dropping: the fatality聽rate聽has fallen in 2013, too. In 2011, the number of fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tied 2010's all-time low of1.04. For 2012, that number is expected to climb to聽1.10, but estimates for 2013 see a decrease to around聽1.06. Yes, that's higher than 2010 and 2011, but it's still significantly lower than most previous years: in 2009, for example, the figure was 1.13, and in 2005, 1.37.
The drop in the fatality rate is made even more remarkable by the fact that聽. If VMT were climbing and the number of fatalities stayed about the same, we'd expect to see fatality rates fall, since all those extra miles would dilute the number of fatalities per 100 million miles traveled. To see the fatality rate fall at the same time that VMT is falling? That's unexpected.聽
At this very early stage in the data collection and analysis, NHTSA doesn't offer any suggestions for 2013's decline. Some of the biggest trouble spots in previous years have involved big rig collisions, accidents involving pedestrians and bicyclists, and distracted driving. Any dip in the fatality rate would seem to stem from improvements on one or more of those fronts.
You can check out charts of NHTSA's preliminary data聽.
